Regional Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Mexican Subduction Zone From Stochastic Slip Models

Salazar-Monroy, Edilson F.; Melgar, Diego; Jaimes, Miguel Á.; Ramirez-Guzmán, L.

doi:10.1029/2020jb020781

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…For hazards, this suggests that when considering long-term assessments in probabilistic frameworks for the region (e.g. Salazar-Monroy et al, 2021) it is important to include long-duration modeling, and a wide aperture geographic domain to allow these features to be expressed in the numerical model. Further we stress that amplitudes alone are insufficient to characterize the full extent of the tsunami threat in the region, currents, and duration of disturbances must be quantified as well.…”

Section: Tsunami Behavior and Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Mechanisms of Tsunami Amplification and the Earthquake Source of the 2021 M7 Acapulco, Mexico, Earthquake

Melgar¹,

Ruiz‐Angulo²,

Crowell³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Here we show a slip model for the 2021 M7 Acapulco, Mexico, earthquake produced by inversion of strong motion, GNSS, tide gauge, and InSAR data. The earthquake occurs within the Guerrero gap, identified as a region of concern for its seismogenic potential and paucity of large events. We find that rupture was compact, constrained to depths between 10 and 20 km and consistent of two main slip patches. The slip model leaves a broad swath of the megathrust unbroken. Whether the event signals a reactivation of large earthquakes in the region remains unknown. We find that tide gauge recordings inside Acapulco Bay for the M7 1962 earthquake and the 2021 event are strikingly similar, we interpret this as weak evidence that 2021 is a repeat of 1962. We also produce a high resolution hydrodynamic model of the resulting tsunami using the slip model as initial condition and place special emphasis in understanding the long duration (~17 hr) of waves inside the bay. We find that simple bay resonance alone does not account for the features of the event. Rather it is a complex interaction with shelf modes and edge waves which continuously re-excite the bay resonance that leads to the protracted tsunami disturbances. Furthermore, we find that significant currents in excess of 1 m/s occur in localized portions of the bay even when wave amplitudes remain small.

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Section: Tsunami Behavior and Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Mechanisms of Tsunami Amplification and the Earthquake Source of the 2021 M7 Acapulco, Mexico, Earthquake

Melgar¹,

Ruiz‐Angulo²,

Crowell³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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show abstract

“…Note that, while GeoClaw has been used for TC storm surge modeling before 29 , the main application of GeoClaw is tsunami modeling where it is popular in probabilistic applications with large ensembles of inundation scenarios 88 . As an alternative, the one-step approach could in principle also be implemented with more advanced ocean models like ADCIRC, GTSM or SCHISM that are able to account for more complex environmental forcing than GeoClaw 89 .…”

Section: Limitations In the Considered Drivers Of Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accounting for surge dynamics is key to modeling tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding

Vogt,

Treu,

Mengel

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Tropical cyclone-induced storm surge is a major coastal risk which will be further amplified by rising sea levels under global warming. The surge-induced floodplains are commonly modeled using a two-step approach by first producing coastal water levels which are, secondly, translated into inundated areas. Here, we evaluate an alternative approach where ocean dynamics and coastal inundation are modeled in a single step using the open-source solver GeoClaw that accounts for the event-specific variation over time of flood drivers. We compute the surge-induced flood extents for a global set of 71 storms from 2000-2019. We show that GeoClaw better reproduces satellite observations and high water marks than two different common modeling approaches that lack a process-based representation of inundation dynamics: a state-of-the-art two-step approach combining a full-scale ocean dynamics with a static (bathtub-type) inundation model and a lightweight approach that directly translates parametric tropical cyclone wind fields into inundation maps using statistical relationships. GeoClaw does not reach the performance of the ocean dynamics model in reproducing coastal water levels, but this deficiency is overcompensated by the dynamic modeling of inundated areas. The computational efficiency of the one-step approach opens up new perspectives for global assessments of coastal risks from tropical cyclones.

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Tsunami modeling and inundation maps of the ∼M8.6, 1787 earthquake along the Oaxacan coast

Caamal

Melgar

2022

Journal of South American Earth Sciences

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Regional Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Mexican Subduction Zone From Stochastic Slip Models

Abstract: Large thrust earthquakes (M > 8.0) occur in active subduction zones around the world. Events such as the

Cited by 5 publications

References 71 publications

The Mechanisms of Tsunami Amplification and the Earthquake Source of the 2021 M7 Acapulco, Mexico, Earthquake

The Mechanisms of Tsunami Amplification and the Earthquake Source of the 2021 M7 Acapulco, Mexico, Earthquake

Accounting for surge dynamics is key to modeling tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding

Tsunami modeling and inundation maps of the ∼M8.6, 1787 earthquake along the Oaxacan coast

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