Regional trends for bud burst and flowering of woody plants in Norway as related to climate change

Nordli, Øyvind; Wielgolaski, F. E.; Bakken, Anne Kjersti; Hjeltnes, S.H.; Måge, F.; Sivle, Anders Doksæter; Skre, O.

doi:10.1007/s00484-008-0156-5

Cited by 72 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 35 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…It is well known [9,[12][13][14][15][16][17] that spring temperature is the dominating factor for explaining the onset of the growing season in Fennoscandia. However, very few high resolution gridded temperature datasets covering the whole area exist, and the meteorological stations are relatively sparse and unevenly distributed within Fennoscandia.…”

Section: E-obs Temperature Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Karlsen et al [10], Xu et al [1] and Bi et al [11] have also observed the same pattern in Northern Europe as elsewhere in the northern lands (>50°N ), but found a lesser increase of the length of the growing season (photosynthetic active period) in the northern parts of Fennoscandia compared with the southern parts of the same area. It is well known [9,[12][13][14][15][16][17] that the spring temperature is the dominating factor for explaining the onset of the growing season in Fennoscandia. Xu et al [1] also showed that the onset of the growing season was significantly correlated with the spring temperatures in the circumpolar and circumboreal areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Trends in the Start of the Growing Season in Fennoscandia 1982–2011

2013

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Global temperature is increasing, and this is affecting the vegetation phenology in many parts of the world. In Fennoscandia, as well as Northern Europe, the advances of phenological events in spring have been recorded in recent decades. In this study, we analyzed the start of the growing season within five different vegetation regions in Fennoscandia using the 30-year Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI3g dataset. We applied a previously developed pixel-specific Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) threshold method, adjusted it to the NDVI3g data and analyzed trends within the different regions. Results show a warming trend with an earlier start of the growing season of 11.8 ± 2.0 days (p < 0.01) for the whole area. However, there are large regional differences, and the warming/trend towards an earlier start of the growing season is most significant in the southern regions (19.3 ± 4.7 days, p < 0.01 in the southern oceanic region), while the start was stable or modest earlier (two to four days; not significant) in the northern regions. To look for temporal variations in the trends, we divided the 30-year period into three separate decadal time periods. Results show significantly more change/trend towards an earlier start of the growing season in the first period compared to the two last. In the second and third period, the trend towards an earlier start of the growing season slowed down, and in two of the regions, the trend towards an earlier start of the growing season was even reversed during the last decade.

show abstract

Section: E-obs Temperature Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in the Start of the Growing Season in Fennoscandia 1982–2011

2013

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, Pudas et al (2008a,b) report that this shortening trend seems to have ended, with an earlier onset of spring and no changes in the timing of autumn phenophases for northern Finland for the [1997][1998][1999][2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006] period. In central, southern, and western oceanic parts of Fennoscandia, there are indications of a different pattern, with only weak trends in change of onset and end of the growing season on a century time scale, but with significant earlier onset of spring phenophases during the last 2 decades (Emberlin et al 2002, Nordli et al 2008, Pudas et al 2008b). However, neither the spatial nor the temporal pattern of the changes in the growing season within Fennoscandia is obvious.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growing-season trends in Fennoscandia 1982–2006, determined from satellite and phenology data

Karlsen¹,

Høgda²,

Wielgolaski³

et al. 2009

Clim. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The study area of Fennoscandia is a heterogeneous climatic region. To map the linear trends in onset, end, and length of the growing season in Fennoscandia, the bimonthly Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) satellite data set was used. The data set has an 8 × 8 km 2 spatial resolution and covers the period from 1982 to 2006. The mapping was done by applying pixel-specific threshold values to the NDVI data. These threshold values were determined from surface phenology data on birch Betula pubescens from 28 stations across the study area. During spring, most stations showed a moderately strong positive correlation between field and NDVI data. However, mapping of the end of the growing season showed less correlation with field phenology data and presented some uncertainty. On average, there was a linear trend for all of Fennoscandia of a 0.27 d yr -1 earlier onset of the growing season, a 0.37 d yr -1 later end of the growing season, and a 0.64 d yr -1 longer growing season. Within Fennoscandia, the trends showed similarities with vegetation zones and sections, which reflect the climatic gradients from north to south and from west to east in the study area. The southern and oceanic regions showed a trend of about a 1 d yr -1 longer growing season, in contrast to the alpine and northern continental regions which showed either no trend or a slightly shorter growing season.

show abstract

“…Menzel & Fabian 1999, Menzel et al 2001, Peñuelas et al 2002, Nordli et al 2008. Most of these studies are based on phenological observations and temperature measurements starting in the 1950s and 1960s.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature sensitivity of Swiss and British plant phenology from 1753 to 1958

Rutishauser¹,

Schleip

Sparks

et al. 2009

Clim. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Recent changes in springtime plant phenological records are likely unprecedented and have been attributed to anthropogenically induced temperature change. In Europe, a major synchronous break in phenological time series in the 1980s was found in numerous studies; however, few of these studies put these breaks into a historical perspective. We present evidence from 2 historical plant phenological records from northern Switzerland and the UK from 1753 to 1958. Monthly mean temperature measurements are available for the same regions. We assess whether synchronised changes in temperature and plant phenological records and recent temperature impacts are unprecedented at the end of the 20th century. We compare the temporal evolution of plant phenological spring indices (PPSI) and temperature series, search for common shifts and change-points by applying Pettitt's test and a Bayesian model comparison approach, and discuss changing temperature sensitivity for both localities. Results show that the Swiss records contain half the phenological variability (SD = 5 d), compared to the UK observations, but higher temperature variability in winter and spring. There is a lack of synchronous shifts and one-point-changes in phenological and temperature series prior to 1958 in contrast to the widespread changes in Europe since the 1980s. However, there are indications of phenological shifts between 1840 and 1870 (Pettitt's test) and changes in 1930 (highest change-point probability). Finally, we found a greater and more variable temperature sensitivity of change in the UK PPSI with respect to seasonal temperatures (2 to 15 d °C ).

show abstract

Regional trends for bud burst and flowering of woody plants in Norway as related to climate change

Cited by 72 publications

References 35 publications

Trends in the Start of the Growing Season in Fennoscandia 1982–2011

Trends in the Start of the Growing Season in Fennoscandia 1982–2011

Growing-season trends in Fennoscandia 1982–2006, determined from satellite and phenology data

Temperature sensitivity of Swiss and British plant phenology from 1753 to 1958

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About