Regional variations in the ocean response to tropical cyclones: Ocean mixing versus low cloud suppression

Huang, Andrew; Li, Hui; Sriver, R. L.; Fedorov, Alexey V.; Brierley, Chris

doi:10.1002/2016gl072023

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…However, it is important to acknowledge that AGCMs omit critical dynamical processes that occur at the airsea interface. AGCMs do not capture wind-induced ocean mixing, which is sizable under major TCs (e.g., Huang et al 2017;Lin et al 2013;Lloyd and Vecchi 2011). Accurate representation of the cooled waters that are left in the wake of intense TCs is important, because they can limit TC intensification and genesis (Schade and Emanuel 1999;Bender and Ginis 2000;Lin et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification in a Global Climate Model

et al. 2018

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As one of the first global coupled climate models to simulate and predict category 4 and 5 (Saffir–Simpson scale) tropical cyclones (TCs) and their interannual variations, the High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) model at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) represents a novel source of insight on how the entire TC intensification distribution could be transformed because of climate change. In this study, three 70-yr HiFLOR experiments are performed to identify the effects of climate change on TC intensity and intensification. For each of the experiments, sea surface temperature (SST) is nudged to different climatological targets and atmospheric radiative forcing is specified, allowing us to explore the sensitivity of TCs to these conditions. First, a control experiment, which uses prescribed climatological ocean and radiative forcing based on observations during the years 1986–2005, is compared to two observational records and evaluated for its ability to capture the mean TC behavior during these years. The simulated intensification distributions as well as the percentage of TCs that become major hurricanes show similarities with observations. The control experiment is then compared to two twenty-first-century experiments, in which the climatological SSTs from the control experiment are perturbed by multimodel projected SST anomalies and atmospheric radiative forcing from either 2016–35 or 2081–2100 (RCP4.5 scenario). The frequency, intensity, and intensification distribution of TCs all shift to higher values as the twenty-first century progresses. HiFLOR’s unique response to climate change and fidelity in simulating the present climate lays the groundwork for future studies involving models of this type.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification in a Global Climate Model

et al. 2018

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“…TCs are also hypothesized to play an active role in influencing climate at both the local and global scales (e.g. Emanuel 2008;Manucharyan et al 2011;Fedorov et al 2010Fedorov et al , 2013Huang et al 2017). TCs represent important extreme climate events and impact financial markets, especially the insurance and reinsurance industries (Pielke 2007;Reed et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Concurrent Changes to Hadley Circulation and the Meridional Distribution of Tropical Cyclones

Studholme

Gulev

2018

Journal of Climate

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Poleward trends in seasonal-mean latitudes of tropical cyclones (TCs) have been identified in direct observations from 1980 to present.Paleoclimate reconstructions also indicate poleward-equatorward migrations over centennial to millennial timescales. Hadley circulation (HC) is often both implicitly and explicitly invoked to provide dynamical linkages to these shifts, although no direct analysis of concurrent changes in the recent period has been presented. Here the observational TC record and the ERA-Interim, JRA55 and MERRA2 reanalyses are studied to examine potential relationships between the two. A zonally-asymmetric HC is defined by employing Helmholtz theory for vector decomposition and this permits the derivation of novel HC diagnostics local to TC basins. Coherent variations in both long-term linear trends and detrended interannual variability are found. TC genesis and lifetime maximum intensity latitudes share trend sign and magnitude with shifts in local HC extent, with rates being ~0.25±0.1 latitude decade -1 . Both these lifecycle stages in hemispheric means and all Pacific TC basins, as well as polewardextreme North Atlantic lysis latitudes, shared ~35% of their interannual variability with HC extent. Local HC intensity is linked only to eastern North Pacific TC latitudes, where strong local overturning corresponds to equatorward TC shifts. Examination of potential dynamical linkages implicates La Niña-like sea surface temperature gradients to poleward HC 3 termini. This corresponds to increased tropical and reduced subtropical vertical wind shear everywhere except in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific, where the opposite is true. These results quantify a longhypothesized link between TCs and the large-scale oceanic-atmospheric state.

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“…Consequently, even the latest generation of those models typically only simulate TC-like storms (e.g. Walsh et al 2007Walsh et al , 2013Gualdi et al 2008;Scoccimarro et al 2011;Camargo et al 2013;Shaevitz et al 2014;Huang et al 2017). Although the spatial and temporal distribution of these storms generally resembles the distribution of observed TCs, frequently there are biases in those distributions and the model storms are typically larger in size and weaker than observed (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical cyclogenesis in warm climates simulated by a cloud-system resolving model

et al. 2018

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Here we investigate tropical cyclogenesis in warm climates, focusing on the effect of reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient relevant to past equable climates and, potentially, to future climate change. Using a cloudsystem resolving model that explicitly represents moist convection, we conduct idealized experiments on a zonally periodic equatorial β-plane stretching from nearly pole-to-pole and covering roughly one-fifth of Earth's circumference. To improve the representation of tropical cyclogenesis and mean climate at a horizontal resolution that would otherwise be too coarse for a cloud-system resolving model (15 km), we use the hypohydrostatic rescaling of the equations of motion, also called reduced acceleration in the vertical. The simulations simultaneously represent the Hadley circulation and the intertropical convergence zone, baroclinic waves in mid-latitudes, and a realistic distribution of tropical cyclones (TCs), all without use of a convective parameterization. Using this model, we study the dependence of TCs on the meridional sea surface temperature gradient. When this gradient is significantly reduced, we find a substantial increase in the number of TCs, including a several-fold increase in the strongest storms of Saffir-Simpson categories 4 and 5. This increase occurs as the mid-latitudes become a new active region of TC formation and growth. When the climate warms we also see convergence between the physical properties and genesis locations of tropical and warm-core extra-tropical cyclones. While end-members of these types of storms remain very distinct, a large distribution of cyclones forming in the subtropics and mid-latitudes share properties of the two. Keywords Tropical cyclones, Climate change, Atmospheric modeling, Paleoclimate Recently, in simulations with doubly periodic domains, Boos et al. (2016) showed that RAVE makes possible simulations of the most intense TCs (i.e. category 5) in a cloud-system resolving model without convective parameterization at O(10 km) resolution. Here, we build on their results and use RAVE to study tropical cyclogenesis on a global scale.

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Regional variations in the ocean response to tropical cyclones: Ocean mixing versus low cloud suppression

Cited by 6 publications

References 36 publications

Projected Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification in a Global Climate Model

Projected Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification in a Global Climate Model

Concurrent Changes to Hadley Circulation and the Meridional Distribution of Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclogenesis in warm climates simulated by a cloud-system resolving model

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