2021
DOI: 10.3758/s13423-021-01934-9
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Regular and random judgements are not two sides of the same coin: Both representativeness and encoding play a role in randomness perception

Abstract: The overalternating bias is that people rate sequences with an excess of alternation as more random than prescribed by information theory. There are two main explanations: the representativeness heuristic (Kahneman & Tversky Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430–454, 1972) and the implicit encoding hypothesis (Falk & Konold Psychological Review, 104, 301–318, 1997). These hypotheses are associated with different reaction times predictions. According to the encoding hypothesis, reaction times should increase as … Show more

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Cited by 6 publications
(6 citation statements)
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“…With regard to the dot-probe task, reaction times shorter than 200 ms were removed, given that it is the minimum estimated time to identify a visually presented object (Johnson, 2010 , see also Gronchi & Sloman, 2021 ; Mather & Carstensen, 2003 ). Long reaction times were excluded for the heavy-tailed distribution of reaction times (Mather & Carstensen, 2003 ; Ratcliff, 1993 ).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…With regard to the dot-probe task, reaction times shorter than 200 ms were removed, given that it is the minimum estimated time to identify a visually presented object (Johnson, 2010 , see also Gronchi & Sloman, 2021 ; Mather & Carstensen, 2003 ). Long reaction times were excluded for the heavy-tailed distribution of reaction times (Mather & Carstensen, 2003 ; Ratcliff, 1993 ).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This organization may be assessed by disarray (the number of alternations between heads and tails) and balance (the proportion of heads and tails) of each sequence. Consequently, sequences with too many or too few alternations have easily identifiable patterns (Gronchi & Sloman, 2021; Lopes & Oden, 1987), which explains the higher preference by A 5 . Balance explains why A 3 is the second most preferred choice; balance is lacking in A 1 and A 4 , while alternations are lacking in A 2 .…”
Section: Empirical Activitiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Test theory introduces the Random Guess Score (RGS), which is the score level that is obtained by simply taking decisions randomly. The Random Guess Score sets a lower bound to the performance that can reasonably be attributed to the candidate's capabilities [Gronchi et al, 2021]. In principle, the Random Guess Score of a test item, which is denoted as RGS, equals the sum of the probability for each option of the item multiplied by the assigned score of the associated outcome [Draaijer et al, 2018].…”
Section: Single Visitmentioning
confidence: 99%