Regulation of Dynamic Processes in the Indicators of Disproportions of Ukrainian Regions: Operational and Logistic Approach

Abstract

Indicators of socio-economic development of the regions of Ukraine demonstrate a tendency to increase disproportions, which are significantly intensified in the conditions of military operations. In addition to the deterioration of performance indicators, this trend leads to the fragmentation of the country's economic space. Regulation of regional development does not contribute to the reduction of disparities, in particular, due to shortcomings in the assessment, interpretation of indicators of disparities and modeling of their dynamics, which leads to the definition of unrealistic goals of regulation. Taking into account the need to ensure the connection between short-term and long-term planning of regional development, the purpose of the article is to develop theoretical and empirical foundations aimed at regulating dynamic processes in the indicators of regional development disproportions. To achieve the goal, the following tasks were chosen: to analyze the models of convergent-divergent processes of regional development imbalances, to build models of long-term interaction of indicators of imbalances in the spheres of life, to determine the basis for assessing the crisis dynamics of regional indicators. Methodology. To regulate the development of regions, a model of long-term interaction of indicators of disproportions in various spheres has been developed. The process component of the study of dynamic processes in the indicators of regional disproportions and forecasting of crisis situations in the spheres of regional activity, which covers the tasks, tools and main results of the study, has been formed. The paper investigates the long-run interaction of inequality indicators in different areas using econometric dynamic vector autoregressive and error correction models (VAR&ECM). This makes it possible to identify and predict non-stationary impulse processes in general, to identify trends relevant to individual phases of activity, to identify the relationship and interdependence of the trajectory of imbalances. The research tools are designed to solve a set of tasks on the regulation of imbalances. The originality of the article lies in the application of the modeling results in the form of interrelationships of disproportions for different time intervals in the formation of a set of programs and preventive measures to manage regional development disproportions. This also enhances the practical significance of the study. Practical implication. The data obtained as a result of the study of the dynamic processes of disproportion indicators can be taken into account in solving a set of tasks to regulate the disproportions of regional development, developing a set of measures for the implementation of regional strategies, financial and budgetary regulation of regional development, determining budget expenditures for solving problems arising from disproportions.

Models for assessing crisis dynamics in disparities of Ukraine’s regional economy to ensure the economic security of regions

“…Previous research by Shevchenko et al (2022) demonstrated the process component of studying the dynamics of regional development disparities indicators and predicting crisis situations. This component includes a description of tasks, research tools with an indication of applicable software packages, as well as presentation of the main results.…”