Regulation of the subseasonal variability of winter rainfall in South China by the diversity of El Niño Southern Oscillation

Guo, Li; Zhu, Congwen; Liu, Boqi

doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05565-z

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…As revealed by previous researches (Li & Mao, 2019;Guo et al, 2021) ascending (descending) motion in enhanced (suppressed) scenarios. Further analysis indicates that the increase (decrease) of vorticity advection with height in enhanced (suppressed) scenarios is mainly induced by its zonal component (Figure 5c,d).…”

Section: Vertical Motionmentioning

confidence: 53%

Intraseasonal variations of precipitation over southern China during boreal winter and their two primary influencing factors

Chen,

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This paper utilizes reanalysis data and statistical methods to elucidate the physical mechanisms of intraseasonal variations of precipitation over southern China during the boreal winter, as well as the two primary factors influencing these variations. Anomalous southerly (northerly) wind over southern China will result in the strong moisture convergence (divergence) in enhanced (suppressed) scenarios, and the stronger positive (negative) horizontal advection of absolute vorticity at upper troposphere induces the anomalous ascending (descending) motion in enhanced (suppressed) scenarios. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in the tropics and a wave train over the North Atlantic and Eurasia with four activity centres in the mid–high latitudes (referred as NAE‐wave train) are the two primary factors that modulate the intraseasoanl precipitation over southern China. The intraseasonal circulation induced by MJO and NAE‐wave train exhibits distinct features, resulting in different physical mechanisms of their influences. The moisture flux divergence anomalies over southern China associated with MJO mainly stem from the meridional moisture convergence, whereas the meridional moisture advection is the first contributor in the influence of NAE‐wave train. The anomalous vorticity advection at upper troposphere associated with MJO is primarily influenced by the meridional advection, but that associated with NAE‐wave train is dominated by the zonal advection. Anomalous precipitation induced by MJO is concentrated mainly over South China, while that caused by NAE‐wave train is primarily located in the mid–lower Yangtze River basin. Therefore, different phases locking of MJO and NAE‐wave train could lead to various precipitation anomalies over southern China.

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Section: Vertical Motionmentioning

confidence: 53%

Intraseasonal variations of precipitation over southern China during boreal winter and their two primary influencing factors

Chen,

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, what modulate the interannual variation of the SAT intraseasonal activities is unclear. Previous studies have suggested the role of interannual extratropical atmospheric teleconnection patterns and interannual external boundary forcing like sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and Arctic sea ice (Zhang et al, 2014;Gerlitz et al, 2018;Zhang et al, 2018;Guo et al, 2019;Guo, 2021). For example, Geng et al (2017) found that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the winter dominant atmospheric circulation mode in Northern Hemisphere, accounts for the intraseasonal transition of a remarkable SAT warming to cooling over East Asia and northern Europe.…”

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confidence: 99%

Intraseasonal variability modes of winter surface air temperature over central Asia and their modulation by Greenland Sea ice and central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Qin

Xue

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The two dominant patterns of the winter (December–February) intraseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) over central Asia is derived by empirical orthogonal function analysis, with the first (mode 1) featuring a regional monopole and the second (mode 2) featuring a northwest–southeast‐orientated dipole. Mode 1 is characterized with warmer (colder) Arctic and colder (warmer) Eurasia along with an anomalous high (low) over the Ural Mountains, while mode 2 is characterized with northwest–southeast dipole over Eurasia along with wave train‐like atmospheric circulation anomalies from the western Atlantic to Asia. Whether the two intraseasonal modes are modulated by lower‐boundary forcing is then investigated, and the results suggest that mode 1 is significantly modulated by sea ice concentration over the Greenland Sea, but by central‐Pacific ENSO for mode 2. Finally, the underlying mechanisms are diagnosed, and the results suggest that the diabatic heating related with decreased sea ice in Greenland Sea induce a positive height anomaly over Urals which favours the formation of Ural blocking and therefore tends to intensify the occurrence of mode 1. Also, central‐Pacific El Niño excites the Pacific–North American teleconnection, which alters North Atlantic subtropical jet extension, favours intensified energy conversion to intraseasonal wave train and subsequently intensifies the occurrence of mode 2. This study highlights the joint role of Arctic sea ice and the SST in the tropical central Pacific.

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“…The WNP anticyclone/cyclone then induces anomalous northward/southward flow over the South China Sea and transports more/less water vapor to SC, resulting in increased/decreased precipitation (Zhang et al, 1996;Wang et al, 2000;Chung et al, 2011). Some recent studies had also suggested that the ENSO could modulate the winter SCP by changing the sub-seasonal variation over East Asia (Guo et al, 2021). However, increasing evidence had demonstrated a fluctuating relationship between ENSO and the SCP (Li and Ma, 2012;Chen et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Combined Effects of ENSO and Solar Activity on Mid-Winter Precipitation Anomalies Over Southern China

Wang

Xiao

et al. 2021

Front. Earth Sci.

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Both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 11-years solar cycle had been identified as important factors that may influence the wintertime southern China precipitation (SCP). However, the interactions between these two factors remain less noticed. In this study, the combined effects of the ENSO and the solar activity on mid-winter (January) SCP are investigated using observational and reanalysis data. Results suggest that both the ENSO and the solar activity are positively correlated with the SCP, although exhibiting distinct spatial patterns. Under different combinations of the ENSO and solar phases, the SCP anomalies show superposition of these two factors to some extent. Generally, the ENSO-related SCP anomalies tend to be enhanced (disturbed) when the ENSO and the solar activity are in-phase (out-of-phase). But this solar modulation effect appears more clear and significant under cold ENSO (cENSO) phase rather than under warm ENSO (wENSO) phase. Further analysis suggests, during the wENSO phase, solar influences on the Northern Hemisphere circulation are generally weak with little significance. In contrast, during the cENSO phase, the solar effect resembles the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation but with an evident zonal asymmetric component. Its manifestation over the Asia-Pacific domain features by negative geopotential height anomaly over the West Asia and positive geopotential height anomaly over the East Asian coast, a pattern that is favorable for the SCP, thus causing a significant solar modulation on the cENSO-related precipitation anomalies. Further, the potential physical causes of solar effects on circulation are also discussed. Our results highlight the importance of considering solar cycle phase when ENSO is used to predict the East Asian winter climate.

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Regulation of the subseasonal variability of winter rainfall in South China by the diversity of El Niño Southern Oscillation

Cited by 10 publications

References 59 publications

Intraseasonal variations of precipitation over southern China during boreal winter and their two primary influencing factors

Intraseasonal variations of precipitation over southern China during boreal winter and their two primary influencing factors

Intraseasonal variability modes of winter surface air temperature over central Asia and their modulation by Greenland Sea ice and central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation

The Combined Effects of ENSO and Solar Activity on Mid-Winter Precipitation Anomalies Over Southern China

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