Abstract-This study presents comparative results obtained from employing four different neuro-fuzzy models to predict geomagnetic storms. Two of thes neuro-fuzzy models can be classified as Brain Emotional Learning Inspired Models (BELIMs) These two models are BELFIS (Brain Emotional Learning Based Fuzzy Inference System) and BELRFS (Brain Emotional Learning Recurrent Fuzzy System). The two other models are Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Locally Linear Model Tree (LoLiMoT) learning algorithm, two powerful neuro-fuzzy models to accurately predict a nonlinear system. These models are compared for their ability to predict geomagnetic storms using the AE index. , a real-time learning model was proposed to model the AE index and predict geomagnetic sub storms. A neuro-fuzzy method using a locally linear neuro-fuzzy model tree algorithm has been used to predict the AE index in [7].
Keywords-AdaptiveAn emotion-based machine-learning approach called BEL was utilized to predict the AE index in [9]. The above mentioned algorithms aimsat providing accurate results when predicting geomagnetic storms, using the AE index. This paper compares the performance of four neuro-fuzzy models to predict AE time series. The goal is to find a powerful neuro-fuzzy model in order to develop an alert system of geomagnetic sub storms.The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section II describes the general structure of BELFIS and BELRFS. Section III redefines the algorithms of two well-known neuro-fuzzy models: ANFIS and LoLiMoT. In Section IV, the results of different methods to model AE time series are compared. Finally, conclusions about this research work are presented and the future work of this study is discussed in Section V.
Neuro-fuzzy Models for Geomagnetic Storms PredictionUsing the Auroral Electrojet Index