We discuss the nature and origin of patterns emerging in the timing and severity of violent events within human conflicts and global terrorism. The underlying data are drawn from across geographical scales from municipalities up to entire continents, with great diversity in terms of terrain, underlying cause, socioeconomic and political setting, cultural and technological background. The data sources are equally diverse, being drawn from all available sources including non-government organizations, academia, and official government records. Despite these implicit heterogeneities and the seemingly chaotic nature of human violence, the patterns that we report are remarkably robust. We argue that this ubiquity of a particular pattern reflects a common way in which groups of humans fight each other, particularly in the asymmetric setting in which one weaker but ostensibly more adaptable opponent confronts a stronger but potentially more sluggish opponent. We propose a minimal generative model which reproduces these common statistical patterns while offering a physical explanation as to their cause. We also explain why our mechanistic approach, which is inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, fits naturally within the framework of recent ideas within the social science literature concerning analytical sociology, as well as setting our results in the wider context of real-world and cyber-based collective violence and illicit activity.
IntroductionIrrespective of its origin, any given conflict or terrorist campaign will play out as a highly complex dynamical system driven by interconnected actors whose actions are driven by a wide variety of evolving information sources, myriad socioeconomic, cultural, and behavioral cues, and multiple feedback processes. Furthermore, since conflicts and campaigns have a beginning and eventually an end, they will by definition exhibit non-steady state, out-of-equilibrium dynamics. Violent conflict is of course one of humanity's oldest pursuits. However the new technologically enabled mixing of social activity in real and cyber space, together with the fueling of illicit activities by the drug trade and international crime, is blurring the boundaries between terrorism, insurgency, war, so-called organized crime, and common delinquency. In addition to the high-profile current cases of insurgency in Syria and Iraq (e.g., IS Islamic State and its variants), U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that the violence by Drug Trafficking Organizations in Mexico may be "morphing into, or making common cause with, what we would call an insurgency" [1]. The United Nations, in its report titled "The Globalization of crime: A transnational organized crime threat assessment" [2], cites a statement by the UN Security Council in which they highlight ".. the serious threat posed in some cases by drug trafficking and transnational organized crime to international security in different regions of the world." Interrelated to the situation in Mexico is that of Colombia, where a thirt...