Relationship between Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nepal

Poudel, Omkar

doi:10.3126/unityj.v4i01.52242

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 19 publications

(20 reference statements)

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“…Before starting an ARIMA model fit, stationary test is required, for that unit root test is used. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is used for unit root test which helps determine whether the variables satisfy the condition of stationarity ( Poudel, 2022, Poudel, 2023. Correlogram could be used to identify patterns in time series data, such as seasonality or trends.…”

Section: Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

ARIMA Modeling and Forecasting of National Consumer Price Index in Nepal

Poudel,

Kharel,

Acharya

et al. 2024

Interdisc. J. Mgt. Soc. Sci.

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This research aims to determine an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and forecasting the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) in Nepal, using annual data from the fiscal year 1972/73 to 2022/23. The research utilized secondary data collected from the online bulletin published by Nepal Rastra Bank, aiming to enhance understanding of NCPI patterns and contribute to predictive modelling techniques for economic indicators. Adopting the Box-Jenkins technique and using E-Views statistical software, this study identifies ARIMA (1, 2, 8) as the most suitable model for NCPI forecasting. This selection is validated through meticulous diagnostic tests, affirming the appropriateness of the model, as evidenced by residuals exhibiting white noise characteristics. The research findings suggest a rapid increase in the National Consumer Price Index for the coming years. Implications of this research extend to both academic and policy-oriented audiences. A successful ARIMA model development holds significant potential for providing accurate predictions of future price trends in Nepal. This, in turn, can assist policymakers in making informed decisions regarding economic strategies, monetary policies, and inflation control measures. Moreover, the study's outcomes offer a foundational framework for future research endeavours in the domain of economic forecasting and modelling, contributing to the broader field of economic analysis and policy formulation.

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Section: Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

ARIMA Modeling and Forecasting of National Consumer Price Index in Nepal

Poudel,

Kharel,

Acharya

et al. 2024

Interdisc. J. Mgt. Soc. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Typically, data that are normally distributed forms a bell-shaped curve, with the majority of points clustered around the mean and decreasing gradually towards the extremes. Within a normally distributed data set, the mean, median, and mode align, and distinct proportions of data points are within specified standard deviations from the mean (Poudel, 2023) A test was conducted to evaluate the normal distribution of the residuals in the model. The test's p-value of 0.3529 exceeds the 5% significance level, indicating acceptance of the null hypothesis.…”

Section: Normality Of Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Private Sector Credit on Economic Growth in Nepal

Raj Kharel,

Poudel,

Mani Upadhyaya

et al. 2024

FMIR

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This study aims to examine the key economic indicators with private sector credit and economic growth in Nepal. Commercial banks and other financial institutions lend money to businesses and individuals for investment and consumption. This study aims to analyze key economic indicators in Nepal, including Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Private Sector Credit (PSC), and Gross Capital Formation (GCF), spanning from 1975 to 2022. Employing a quantitative methodology, econometric techniques such as time series analysis, regression modeling, and hypothesis testing were utilized to examine the long-term relationships among these variables, with a particular focus on the impact of Private Sector Credit on Economic Growth (EG). The findings, derived from comprehensive econometric analyses including co-integration tests and vector error correction models, reveal significant insights into Nepal’s economic performance and financial system. Results indicate that Private Sector Credit plays a crucial role in stimulating economic growth, with approximately 40.07% of the previous year’s imbalance influenced by the long-term elasticity of independent variables. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers, businesses, and investors, facilitating informed decision-making to promote sustainable economic development in Nepal. Further research is recommended to explore the correlation between the diversification of Private Sector Credit types and economic growth more comprehensively.

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Relationship between Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nepal

Cited by 2 publications

References 19 publications

ARIMA Modeling and Forecasting of National Consumer Price Index in Nepal

ARIMA Modeling and Forecasting of National Consumer Price Index in Nepal

Effect of Private Sector Credit on Economic Growth in Nepal

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