Relationship between Successive Flares in the Same Active Region and Space-Weather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) Parameters

Abstract

A solar active region (AR) may produce multiple notable flares during its passage across the solar disk. We investigate successive flares from flare-eruptive active regions, and explore their relationship with solar magnetic parameters. We examine six ARs in this study, each with at least one major flare above X1.0. The Space-Weather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) is employed in this study to parameterize the ARs. We aim to identify the most flare-related SHARP parameters and lay foundation for future practical flare forecasts. We first evaluate the correlation coefficients between the SHARP parameters and the successive flare production. Then we adopt a Natural Gradient Boost (NGBoost) method to analyze the relationship between the SHARP parameters and the successive flare bursts. Based on the correlation analysis and the importance distribution returned from NGBoost, we select 8 most flare-related SHARP parameters. Finally, we discuss the physical meanings of the 8 selected parameters and their relationship with flare production.