Relationship between the dynamics of landslide process in the Vorkuta River valley and the main climatic parameters

Abstract

Erosion due to frozen and hygrogenic creep and flooding of the slope with surface waters are the reasons for the landslide revival in residential areas of Vorkuta. We have evaluated the interlink between landslide dynamics, seasonal frost depth and main climatic parameters affecting the above indexes as snow accumulation, mean air temperature of cold year period, number of cold days and amount of liquid precipitation for 2010–2020. Frost depths for technogenic grounds and semi-rocks have been calculated by two methods based: 1 – on the thermal properties of soils and rocks and some climatic parameters, 2 – on the heat conductance of a three-layer medium (snow cover, frozen and thawed soils) and its heat balance. The mean difference between the calculated and some observed frost depths in technogenic grounds is 30 %. The correlation coefficient Kcor was 0.86 and 0.62. According to the Grey correlation analysis, the mean air tem-perature for the cold year period is an important parameter affecting the reference sequence, i.e. landslide dynamics. Cold period length and air temperature best affected the frost depth. Liquid precipitation amount is found to be another significant parameter for both reference sequences.