Relationships between road accidents and hourly traffic flow—I

Ceder, Avishai; Livneh, Moshe

doi:10.1016/0001-4575(82)90004-5

Cited by 85 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…However, there are only few studies that have looked at changes in crash counts at a more disaggregate level. For instance, Levine et al (1995aLevine et al ( , 1995b and Jones et al (1991) studied daily changes, whilst Ceder and Livneh (1982) examined hourly fluctuations in crashes. Both approaches, high-level or low-level data aggregation, have advantages and disadvantages.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Studying the effect of weather conditions on daily crash counts using a discrete time-series model

Brijs

Karlis

Wets

2008

Accident Analysis & Prevention

196

134

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In previous research, significant effects of weather conditions on car crashes have been found. However, most studies use monthly or yearly data and only few studies are available analyzing the impact of weather conditions on daily car crash counts. Furthermore, the studies that are available on a daily level do not explicitly model the data in a time-series context, hereby ignoring the temporal serial correlation that may be present in the data. In this paper, we introduce an Integer Autoregressive model for modelling count data with time interdependencies. The model is applied to daily car crash data, metereological data and traffic exposure data from the Netherlands aiming at examining the risk impact of weather conditions on the observed counts. The results show that several assumptions related to the effect of weather conditions on crash counts are found to be significant in the data and that if serial temporal correlation is not accounted for in the model, this may produce biased results.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Studying the effect of weather conditions on daily crash counts using a discrete time-series model

Brijs

Karlis

Wets

2008

Accident Analysis & Prevention

196

134

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“…Under the influence of different factors this relationship can be both linear and Ushaped (Wang et al, 2013;Martin, 2002;Garber and Subramanyan, 2001), e.g. under free traffic flow conditions (Ceder and Livneh, 1982). Lord et al (2005) observe that although there is a positive relationship between traffic flow and accident occurrence however the accidents seem to increase at a decreasing rate as the traffic flow increases.…”

Section: Road Accident Predictorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation Study of the Effect of Decreasing Truck Traffic Flow on Safety on Almeria-Barcelona Corridor

Dadashova

2016

Libro De Actas CIT2016. XII Congreso De Ingeniería Del Transporte

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In this paper the effect of truck traffic on road safety has been analyzed through simulation study. The main objective of the study is to quantify the effect of the decreasing average annual daily traffic of heavy duty vehicles (trucks) on road safety. As the road safety indicators the frequency road accidents is considered. The data used in the study were collected from one of the most crowded routes in Spain which connects Almeria (southeast) with Barcelona (northeast). The observed data covers year 2010 and were classified into 2 road types: dual carriageways and toll roads. The estimation was carried out using negative binomial model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Using the estimation results new traffic scenarios were proposed where the traffic flow is assumed to change its values. A total of 33 scenarios were proposed and new accidents data were generated through MCMC sampling. The comparison of the simulated and observed accident data shows that the effect of decreasing truck traffic flow could meliorate road safety in the route. The simulation tool could be applied to evaluate the effects of freight modal shift from road to rail.

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“…Least squares and linear regression modeling approaches have been used in a number of safety studies (Ceder, 1982;Ceder and Livneh, 1982 negative. These are not appealing statistical properties, and also, they are inconsistent with count data distributions (Washington et al, 2003).…”

Section: The Least Squares Regression Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the Role of Operational Characteristics in Safety Performance of PublicTransportation Systems: The Case of TriMet Bus Collision and Non-collision Incidents.

Wachana¹

2000

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The incidence of bus crashes in the US have been trending upwards, with accident, injury and fatality rates increasing 171%, 37.8%, and 5. responsive action events and customer complaints about unsafe bus operation. These findings make some contributions to the understanding of the factors that are empirically related to the frequency of safety incidents as well as offer insights into operation practices and policies that hold promise for reducing bus safety incidents.ii Acknowledgment

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Relationships between road accidents and hourly traffic flow—I

Cited by 85 publications

References 3 publications

Studying the effect of weather conditions on daily crash counts using a discrete time-series model

Studying the effect of weather conditions on daily crash counts using a discrete time-series model

Simulation Study of the Effect of Decreasing Truck Traffic Flow on Safety on Almeria-Barcelona Corridor

Modeling the Role of Operational Characteristics in Safety Performance of PublicTransportation Systems: The Case of TriMet Bus Collision and Non-collision Incidents.

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