Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. www.econstor.eu The most basic economic theory suggests that rising incomes in developing countries will deter emigration from those countries, an idea that captivates policymakers in international aid and trade diplomacy. A lengthy literature and recent data suggest something quite different: that over the course of a "mobility transition", emigration generally rises with economic development until countries reach upper-middle income, and only thereafter falls. This note quantifies the shape of the mobility transition in every decade since 1960. It then briefly surveys 45 years of research, which has yielded six classes of theory to explain the mobility transition and numerous tests of its existence and characteristics in both macro-and micro-level data. The note concludes by suggesting five questions that require further study.
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NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARYMany aid packages and trade deals for poor countries seek to reduce migration pressure from those countries. But the latest data and a half-century of research suggest that as typical poor countries grow, emigration pressure actually rises. Migration pressure only typically falls when they grow past upper-middle-income status. In poor countries, more development means more migration, not less. Policies to foster development may thus be most effective when paired with policies to accommodate mobility. This note reviews what economists know and what they do not know about the effect of development on international migration. I begin by summarizing the conventional wisdom, in the policy worlds of aid and trade diplomacy, that economic development swiftly creates conditions that deter emigration. I then summarize the basic facts about the observed association between economic development and emigration, in the best and most recent data we have. These show a clear and pronounced inverted-U relationship,