Relative performance of judgmental methods for forecasting the success of megaprojects

Litsiou, Konstantia; Polychronakis, Yiannis E.; Karami, Azhdar; Νικολόπουλος, Κωνσταντίνος

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.018

Cited by 10 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Litsiou et al (2019) suggest that forecasting the success of megaprojects is particularly a challenging and critical task due to the characteristics of such projects. Megaproject stakeholders typically implement impact assessments and/or cost benefit Analysis tools (Litsiou et al, 2019). As Makridakis et al (2010) suggested, judgemental forecasting is suitable where quantitative data is limited, and the level of uncertainty is very high; elements that we find in megaprojects.…”

Section: Forecasting For Megaprojects 151mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As Makridakis et al (2010) suggested, judgemental forecasting is suitable where quantitative data is limited, and the level of uncertainty is very high; elements that we find in megaprojects. By comparing the performance of three judgemental methods, unaided judgement, semi-structured analogies (sSA), and interaction groups (IG), used by a group of 69 semi-experts, Litsiou et al (2019) found that, the use of sSA outperforms unaided judgment in forecasting performance. The difference is amplified further when pooling of analogies through IG is introduced.…”

Section: Forecasting For Megaprojects 151mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The IG method suggests that the members of the panel of experts actively interact and debate their points to the extent they have to reach an agreement on a common forecast (Litsiou et al, 2019). Sniezek and Henry (1989) found that members of interacting groups provide more accurate judgments compared to individuals.…”

Section: Panels Of Experts 72mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Flyvbjerg (2007) stress the importance of the front-end considerations particularly for Megaprojects Failure to account for unforeseen events frequently lead to cost overruns. Litsiou et al (2019) suggest that forecasting the success of megaprojects is particularly a challenging and critical task due to the characteristics of such projects. Megaproject stakeholders typically implement impact assessments and/or cost benefit Analysis tools (Litsiou et al, 2019).…”

Section: Forecasting For Megaprojects 151mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecasting: theory and practice

Petropoulos,

Apiletti,

Assimakopoulos

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Forecasting has always been in the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The lack of a free-lunch theorem implies the need for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle an array of applications. This unique article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We offer a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts, including operations, economics, finance, energy, environment, and social good. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. The list was compiled based on the expertise and interests of the authors. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of the forecasting theory and practice.

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Section: Forecasting For Megaprojects 151mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Forecasting For Megaprojects 151mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Panels Of Experts 72mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Forecasting For Megaprojects 151mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecasting: theory and practice

Petropoulos,

Apiletti,

Assimakopoulos

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…Many government projects and programs are extended for years, do not reach their goals, and suddenly are terminated at the planning or implementation stage [2]. The effectiveness of the evaluation methods to predict the success of megaprojects is considered in [3].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges of Megaproject Management of Education in Contemporary Russia

et al. 2020

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This article discusses the theoretical foundations of megaproject management. Based on consideration of education management in contemporary Russia, the issues of implementing megaproject management are identified. The purpose of the study is to determine the problems and opportunities of megaproject management in education. The project classification is made on various grounds, and information on one of the key Russian national projects, namely, Education is provided. The article considers the relationship of megaprojects with the government’s economic policy, as well as the ratio of expenditures as a percentage of GDP in the most important sectors of society’s development. The use of logical and statistical methods allowed concluding the prevalence of large-scale projects in the Russian economy regardless of their effectiveness. The reasons for the inefficiency of megaproject management are quite numerous, including methodological problems, features of the institutional environment, and the emerging centralized model of economic management in Russia.

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Incorporating External Factors into Time Series Forecasts

Baets

Harvey

2023

International Series in Operations Research &Amp; Management Science

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Relative performance of judgmental methods for forecasting the success of megaprojects

Cited by 10 publications

References 49 publications

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting: theory and practice

Challenges of Megaproject Management of Education in Contemporary Russia

Incorporating External Factors into Time Series Forecasts

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