Relative risks of the uncontrollable (airborne) spread of FMD by different species

Donaldson, A.I.; Alexandersen, Søren; Sørensen, J.H.; Mikkelsen, Torben

doi:10.1136/vr.148.19.602

Cited by 150 publications

(121 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…This is in contrast to CSF (for example see Stegeman et al, 1999 & De Vos et al, in press). Both diseases are list A diseases and approximately spread via the same transmission routes (De Vos et al, in press;Eibers et al, 1999;Donaldson et al, 2001). Therefore, to estimate the R h , data collected during the Dutch CSF epidemic in 1997-1998 was used .…”

Section: Epidemiological Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Main difference between transmission routes of FMD and CSF is that FMD virus could be spread by wind over long distances under certain weather circumstances 7 (Gloster et al, 1982;Donaldson et al, 2001), although opinions differ about the range of airborne spread. Air currents play a minor role as a transmission route between herds for CSF (De Vos et al, in press;Eibers et al, 1999).…”

Section: Epidemiological Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Under certain epidemiological and climatic conditions FMD virus can be spread by the wind. Of all mechanisms spread by air is least controllable Ferguson et al, 2001a;Sorensen et al, 2000Sorensen et al, & 2001.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A decision-tree to optimise control measures during the early stage of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

Tomassen

Koeijer²,

Mourits

et al. 2002

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

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A decision tree was developed as a tool to support decision making on control measures during the first days after the declaration of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). The objective of the tree was to minimise direct costs and export losses of FMD epidemics under several scenarios. These scenarios were based on important determinants in the development of epidemics and therefore defined by livestock and herd density in the outbreak region, the possibility of airborne spread, and the time between first infection and first detection. The starting point of the tree was an epidemiological model based on a deterministic SIR approach. The effect of four control strategies on FMD dynamics was modelled. In addition to the standard control strategy of stamping-out and culling of high-risk contact herds, strategies involving ring culling within 1 km of an infected herd, ring vaccination within 1 km of an infected herd, and ring vaccination within 3 km of an infected herd were assessed. An economic model converted outbreak and control effects of farming and processing operations into estimates of direct costs and consequential export losses. Results showed that animal density within the outbreak region is a very important determinant in deciding on the economically optimal control strategy. Ring vaccination is the economically optimal control strategy for densely populated livestock areas whereas ring culling is the economically optimal control strategy for sparsely populated livestock areas.

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Section: Epidemiological Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Epidemiological Modulementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A decision-tree to optimise control measures during the early stage of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

Tomassen

Koeijer²,

Mourits

et al. 2002

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

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“…Awareness of heterogeneities in transmission dynamics can be important for the effective implementation of disease control measures and can lead to efficient targeting of interventions at a subset of the population (2)(3)(4)(5). Factors that might lead to such heterogeneities include variability in infectiousness, exposure, genetic susceptibility, contact rates, and behavior (6)(7)(8)(9)(10). Quantifying their impact on the transmission dynamics can be achieved through direct methods, such as contact tracing and outbreak reconstruction (1,11), or indirectly through their effect on the distribution of infected cases (12).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Heterogeneous shedding ofEscherichia coliO157 in cattle and its implications for control

Matthews

Low²,

Gally³

et al. 2006

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

232

226

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Identification of the relative importance of within-and betweenhost variability in infectiousness and the impact of these heterogeneities on the transmission dynamics of infectious agents can enable efficient targeting of control measures. Cattle, a major reservoir host for the zoonotic pathogen Escherichia coli O157, are known to exhibit a high degree of heterogeneity in bacterial shedding densities. By relating bacterial count to infectiousness and fitting dynamic epidemiological models to prevalence data from a cross-sectional survey of cattle farms in Scotland, we identify a robust pattern: Ϸ80% of the transmission arises from the 20% most infectious individuals. We examine potential control options under a range of assumptions about within-and betweenhost variability in infection dynamics. Our results show that the within-herd basic reproduction ratio, R 0, could be reduced to <1 with targeted measures aimed at preventing infection in the 5% of individuals with the highest overall infectiousness. Alternatively, interventions such as vaccination or the use of probiotics that aim to reduce bacterial carriage could produce dramatic reductions in R 0 by preventing carriage at concentrations corresponding to the top few percent of the observed range of counts. We conclude that a greater understanding of the cause of the heterogeneity in bacterial carriage could lead to highly efficient control measures to reduce the prevalence of E. coli O157.bacterial count ͉ core groups ͉ super shedder ͉ superspreading ͉ targeted control T he role of heterogeneous infectiousness on the course of disease outbreaks was highlighted during the recent severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak (1), in which a few individuals were responsible for a disproportionate number of transmission events. Awareness of heterogeneities in transmission dynamics can be important for the effective implementation of disease control measures and can lead to efficient targeting of interventions at a subset of the population (2-5). Factors that might lead to such heterogeneities include variability in infectiousness, exposure, genetic susceptibility, contact rates, and behavior (6-10). Quantifying their impact on the transmission dynamics can be achieved through direct methods, such as contact tracing and outbreak reconstruction (1, 11), or indirectly through their effect on the distribution of infected cases (12).Escherichia coli O157 is an important zoonosis with a known reservoir in cattle (13,14). Prevalences of infection are generally low, usually reported to be Ͻ10% of animals carrying the pathogen (14). Typically, however, the distribution of prevalences is highly skewed (15); at any one time, shedding is not detected in the majority of cattle groups, but a small proportion of groups contains high numbers of individuals shedding bacteria in their feces.The range of prevalences of an infectious agent in a small population is expected to be influenced both by stochasticity and underlying heterogeneities in the transmission dynamics. In a recent a...

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“…Several studies have shown that one of the main and uncontrollable mechanisms of bioaerosols dispersion is atmospheric transport (Casal et al, 1995;Daggupaty & Sellers, 1990;Donaldson et al, 2001;Lighthart & Frish, 1976;Lighthart & Kirilenko, 1998;Pillai & Ricke, 2002). This phenomenon can cause serious social and economic consequences, so the prediction of affected zones is very important for controlling epidemics and for avoiding economic losses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bioaerosol Emissions: A Stochastic Approach

Godoy¹,

Cruz²,

Scenna³

2011

Air Quality-Models and Applications

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Relative risks of the uncontrollable (airborne) spread of FMD by different species

Cited by 150 publications

References 25 publications

A decision-tree to optimise control measures during the early stage of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

A decision-tree to optimise control measures during the early stage of a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

Heterogeneous shedding ofEscherichia coliO157 in cattle and its implications for control

Bioaerosol Emissions: A Stochastic Approach

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