We have investigated the energies of a number of phases of ZrO 2 using models of an increasing degree of sophistication: the simple ionic model, the polarizable ion model, the compressible ion model, and finally a model including quadrupole polarizability of the oxygen ions. The three structures which are observed with increasing temperatures are monoclinic, tetragonal, and cubic ͑fluorite͒. Besides these we have studied some hypothetical structures which certain potentials erroneously predict or which occur in other oxides with this stoichiometry, e.g., the ␣-PbO 2 structure and rutile. We have also performed ab initio density functional calculations with the full-potential linear combination of muffin-tin orbitals method to investigate the cubictetragonal distortion. A detailed comparison is made between the results using classical potentials, the experimental data, and our own and other ab initio results. The factors which stabilize the various structure are analyzed. We find the only genuinely transferable model is the one including compressible ions and anion polarizability to the quadrupole level. ͓S0163-1829͑96͒00334-7͔