Reliability analysis by mapping probabilistic importance factors into bayesian belief networks for making decision in water deluge system

Guetarni, Islam Hadj Mohamed; Aissani, Nassima; Châtelet, Éric; Lounis, Zoubida

doi:10.1002/prs.12011

Cited by 19 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…The methodology proposed in this research can be used in a variety of ways. Some examples are discussed here 47 . proposed a dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow‐ tie (BT) into BN).…”

Section: Discussion Of Proposed Methodology Limitations Of the Resear...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Failure probability assessment of emergency safety barriers integrating an extension of event tree analysis and Fuzzy type‐2 analytic hierarchy process

Daas

Innal

2023

Systems Engineering

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Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) storage fires and explosions occur due to uncontrolled gas leaks and the gradual breakdown of associated safety barriers. By installing an effective safety barrier, these accidents can be greatly reduced. However, this study assesses the probability of failure of emergency safety barriers (ESBs) to help decision makers understand how they can support decisions to reduce the risks associated with LPG storage. In this context, an extension of the event tree analysis is proposed named emergency event tree analysis (EETA). The aim of this paper is to develop an integrated approach that uses interval type‐2 fuzzy sets and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and emergency event tree analysis to handle uncertainty in the failure probability assessment of emergency safety barriers (ESBs). In addition, a case study on the failure probability assessment of the emergency safety barriers of the LPG plant in Algeria based on the proposed methodology is provided and carried out to illustrate its effectiveness and feasibility. The results demonstrated the ability of interval type‐2 fuzzy sets and the AHP method to provide highly reliable results and to evaluate the failure probability of emergency safety barriers in emergencies situations. However, the classical event tree analysis (CETA) does not take into account the possibility of assessing the emergency consequences of different accident scenarios. Consequently, it only allows you to estimate the occurrence probability of accident scenarios. The results of this study show that the value of the probability of failure of the emergency safety barriers can be used to estimate the probability of occurrence of emergency consequences under different accident scenarios, improved the reliability and help prioritize emergency improvement measures. The study provides scientific and operational references for analyzing emergency consequences of the various accident scenarios in all fields such as petrochemical, maritime industry, and health occupational.

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Section: Discussion Of Proposed Methodology Limitations Of the Resear...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Failure probability assessment of emergency safety barriers integrating an extension of event tree analysis and Fuzzy type‐2 analytic hierarchy process

Daas

Innal

2023

Systems Engineering

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“…Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is vastly employed as an analytical methodology for recognizing , ranking, and reducing different failures modes [1]. For such failure mode, three criticality factors: severity (S), non-detection (ND), and frequency (F) are assessed, and a risk priority number (RPN) is computed by multiplying these factors to evaluate the risk value [2] [3,4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

New risk assessment and prioritization failure modes based approach in a gas turbine system

Chakhrit

Bougofa²,

Guetarni³

et al. 2022

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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The dependability occupies a strong place in the performance achievement of the system. It describes the mechanisms that lead to failures of systems. Failure mode and effects, analysis (FMEA) is a classical safety technique widely used in several safety critical industries. This method uses the risk priority number (RPN) to assess the criticality value and prioritize failure modes. However, it suffers from some drawbacks regarding the situation where the in-formation provided is ambiguous or uncertain. Thus, in this work, a fuzzy criticality assessment based approach is carried out to evaluate the failure modes of the relevant system and gives an alternate prioritizing to that obtained by the conventional method. In addition, a novel hybrid approach is proposed that combines the grey relational approach (GRA) and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. This approach offers a new ranking of failure modes by solving the shortcoming concerning the lack of established rules of inference system which necessitate a lot of experience and shows the weightage or importance to the three parameters severity, detection, and frequency, which are considered to have equal importance in the traditional method. A real case study from a gas turbine system provides encouraging results regarding the risk evaluation and prioritizing failures mode with handling different forms of ambiguity, uncertainty, and divergent judgments of experts.

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“…Moreover, unlike FTA, BN has bi-directional reasoning ability. Due to these advantages of BN, it can effectively make up for the shortcomings of FTA, which make it widely used in reliability analysis [7][8][9]. Because of the similar structure between fault tree and BN, many scholars choose to convert fault tree to BN to use it for reliability and safety analysis of complex systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability Analysis of Metro Door System Based on Fuzzy Multi-State Bayesian Network

Tian

et al. 2021

J. Eng. Technol. Sci.

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Considering the shortcomings of the fault tree analysis (FTA) method in the reliability analysis of metro door systems, Bayesian network (BN) and fuzzy theory were introduced to establish the failure probability model of a metro door system. A fault tree of the metro door system was established based on the structure of the metro door, the operation data record and the practical experience of relevant engineers. The BN of the metro door system was constructed based on the fault tree. For the problem that the prior probabilities of root nodes with missing data were unavailable, fuzzy theory was introduced to convert the expert language values on these missing data nodes to corresponding prior probabilities, which were substituted into the BN along with the root nodes whose prior probabilities were obtained from the operation fault data to calculate the leaf node probability. Cause analysis of the metro door system was performed with bi-directional reasoning of BN, which provided a way to find the key factors that caused door faults and the metro door system fault probabilities.

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Reliability analysis by mapping probabilistic importance factors into bayesian belief networks for making decision in water deluge system

Cited by 19 publications

References 43 publications

Failure probability assessment of emergency safety barriers integrating an extension of event tree analysis and Fuzzy type‐2 analytic hierarchy process

Failure probability assessment of emergency safety barriers integrating an extension of event tree analysis and Fuzzy type‐2 analytic hierarchy process

New risk assessment and prioritization failure modes based approach in a gas turbine system

Reliability Analysis of Metro Door System Based on Fuzzy Multi-State Bayesian Network

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