Reliability analysis of flood defenses: The case of the Nezahualcoyotl dike in the aztec city of Tenochtitlan

Torres-Alves, Gina Alexandra; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2020.107057

Cited by 15 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…In this section, the algorithm introduced in Section 2.2 is expanded to take into account intermittency. Results are based on the methodology presented in Torres-Alves et al [41]. The basic idea is the coupling of the copula models with Markov chains.…”

Section: First-order Intermittent-continuous Bivariate Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The case study described herein is presented in Torres-Alves & Morales-Nápoles (2020) [41]. It concerns the reliability analysis due to overflow of the ancient Nezahualcoyotl dike that was once located in the Valley of Mexico (Figure 5).…”

Section: Area Of Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ref. [41] reconstructed the geometry and position of the ancient structure based on historical sources. The dike was 16 km long with a height of 8 m and a width of 3.5 m. It was made out of wood, stone, and mud.…”

Section: Area Of Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to recreate the hydrological conditions of the lake at the time where the dike was used, time series of precipitation and evaporation are needed. A first attempt to characterize the dependence between the two variables is the model developed in [41]. In this paper, the model presented in [41] is extended to reproduce the first-order auto-dependence structure in the evaporation process.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A first attempt to characterize the dependence between the two variables is the model developed in [41]. In this paper, the model presented in [41] is extended to reproduce the first-order auto-dependence structure in the evaporation process. Additionally, specific considerations to better reproduce cross-correlations between the evaporation and precipitation processes are introduced.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Stochastic Modeling of Hydroclimatic Processes Using Vine Copulas

Pouliasis

Torres-Alves

Morales-Nápoles

2021

Water

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The generation of synthetic time series is important in contemporary water sciences for their wide applicability and ability to model environmental uncertainty. Hydroclimatic variables often exhibit highly skewed distributions, intermittency (that is, alternating dry and wet intervals), and spatial and temporal dependencies that pose a particular challenge to their study. Vine copula models offer an appealing approach to generate synthetic time series because of their ability to preserve any marginal distribution while modeling a variety of probabilistic dependence structures. In this work, we focus on the stochastic modeling of hydroclimatic processes using vine copula models. We provide an approach to model intermittency by coupling Markov chains with vine copula models. Our approach preserves first-order auto- and cross-dependencies (correlation). Moreover, we present a novel framework that is able to model multiple processes simultaneously. This method is based on the coupling of temporal and spatial dependence models through repetitive sampling. The result is a parsimonious and flexible method that can adequately account for temporal and spatial dependencies. Our method is illustrated within the context of a recent reliability assessment of a historical hydraulic structure in central Mexico. Our results show that by ignoring important characteristics of probabilistic dependence that are well captured by our approach, the reliability of the structure could be severely underestimated.

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Section: First-order Intermittent-continuous Bivariate Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Area Of Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Area Of Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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