Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II in an Australian Context

Abstract

This study investigated the reliability and predictive validity of the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II), in an Australian context, and for Australian Indigenous and non-Indigenous youth. Participants were 123 ( n = 91 non-Indigenous; n = 32 Indigenous) youth assessed using the J-SOAP-II and followed up over an average period of 4 years. The reliability of the J-SOAP-II was assessed using measures of internal consistency (Cronbach’s alphas and inter-item correlations). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were conducted to assess the J-SOAP-II’s validity in predicting sexual and non-sexual (violent and non-violent) recidivism. Overall, the J-SOAP-II demonstrated moderate to high levels of reliability and weak to moderate levels of validity for predicting sexual and non-sexual (violent and non-violent) recidivism for the whole sample. While the J-SOAP-II total score was significantly associated with non-sexual (violent and non-violent) recidivism for non-Indigenous youth, it was not significantly associated with any of the outcome variables for Indigenous youth. Across all analyses, the dynamic scales of the J-SOAP-II predicted recidivism with greater accuracy than the static scales. However, the static scales had greater accuracy in predicting the risk of sexual recidivism for Indigenous youth. While a reliable measure, these preliminary findings raise questions about the validity of the J-SOAP-II for predicting sexual recidivism for Indigenous and non-Indigenous youth in an Australian context, and warrant further investigation.

Risk assessment of adolescent sex offenders: A case overview

“…JSOAP-II skala nije standardizovana na način da obezbeđuje cut-off skorove za kategorije rizika (seksualni i generalni recidivizam) u ovom trenutku, jer se nalazi u tekućem procesu empirijske evaluacije. Inostrane studije se utvrdile generalno zadovoljavajuću pouzdanost i prediktivnu validnost za seksualni i neseksualni recidivizam za JSOAP II skalu i njene subskale [28,29,30,31,32] . Ne postoje empiririjski podaci o validaciji ovog instrumenta u našoj sredini, odnosno instrument nije standardizovan na našoj populaciji, pa aktuelno ne može biti deo standardne forenzičke procene.…”

“…Ovakav pristup omogućava adekvatniju procenu rizika, jer uvažava specifične okolnosti mlade osobe. J-SOAP-II skala ima zadovoljavajuću pouzdanost i prediktivnu validnost prema inostranim studijama, i jedan je od najčešćih instrumenata koji se koristi u forenzičkoj praksi u proceni adolescenata [22,28,31,32] . S obzirom da JSO-AP-II skala još uvek nije validirana na našoj populaciji, prilkom interpretacije podataka dobijenih ovim instrumentom imali smo u vidu ovo ograničenje, i procenu smo bazirali na svebuhvatnom pristupu, odnosno na podacima iz različitih izvora.…”