Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods

Billinton, R.; Li, Wenyuan

doi:10.1007/978-1-4899-1346-3

Cited by 1,305 publications

(939 citation statements)

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“…These flexible regimes are simply an augmentation to the conventional standard probabilistic reliability evaluation process which is well understood by the modern power system planner and/or operator [8].…”

Section: Reliability Evaluation and Network Modelling Consideringmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The metrics of utilizing a probabilistic framework are rendered through their inherent ability to account for the vast range of uncertainties that surround the behavior of generation and transmission units. Thus historically, by simulating the system random behavior through techniques such as the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), reliability engineers have been able to accurately measure system's performance through the estimation of probabilistic indices of interest [8]. Consequently, much attention is now being placed on performing probabilistic reliability assessment by considering an advanced power system operating paradigm.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Electricity Network Reliability Planning and Evaluation Considering Flexible Solutions

Tumelo-Chakonta

Kapetanaki

Kopsidas³

2014

MedPower 2014

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Abstract-Amid contemporary electric power system planning and operating regimes, the transmission network is pervasively operated, and planned, with time-invariant thermal ratings (TITRs) of transmission assets. This results in a transmission network which is not fully (and efficiently) utilized. In the future, however, power systems will be increasingly expected to transition into a smart grid-in order to be more efficient and economical. Consequently, the network will pervasively have to be operated, and planned, with time-varying thermal ratings (TVTRs) of transmission assets. Moreover, the smart grid will further facilitate the inclusion of demand response (DR) into the transmission network planning process. Therefore, this paper aims to discuss the need for, and implications of, adopting novel electricity network reliability planning and evaluation methodical approaches which consider flexible solutions (i.e., DR and TVTR). Subsequently, in order to encourage the adoption of these proposed approaches, the quantification of the benefits from increased, efficient and economical transmission utilization considering flexible concepts such as non-ageing TVTR, controlled-ageing of transmissions assets due to advanced operation of TVTR, and DR within transmission system are performed-and evaluated. The IEEE 24-bus RTS is used under sequential Monte Carlo simulation (SMCS) modelling of the reliability evaluation process in order to validate the proposed methodological enhancements and to evaluate network performance.

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Section: Reliability Evaluation and Network Modelling Consideringmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Electricity Network Reliability Planning and Evaluation Considering Flexible Solutions

Tumelo-Chakonta

Kapetanaki

Kopsidas³

2014

MedPower 2014

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“…Discretization of the load forecast error probability distribution function (adapted from [26]). the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) simulation, which refers to a simulation process over a chronological time span, and is used to simulate the frequency and duration of generators' outages based on the failure rate (k) and the repair rate (l) [27,28]. The most popular approach to create an artificial system state transition cycle is called state duration sampling, which is based on sampling a probability distribution of generator state duration.…”

Section: Scenario Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market

et al. 2013

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a b s t r a c tIn the proposed model, the independent system operator (ISO) provides the opportunity for maintenance outage rescheduling of generating units before each short-term (ST) time interval. Long-term (LT) scheduling for 1 or 2 years in advance is essential for the ISO and the generation companies (GENCOs) to decide their LT strategies; however, it is not possible to be exactly followed and requires slight adjustments. The Cournot-Nash equilibrium is used to characterize the decision-making procedure of an individual GENCO for ST intervals considering the effective coordination with LT plans. Random inputs, such as parameters of the demand function of loads, hourly demand during the following ST time interval and the expected generation pattern of the rivals, are included as scenarios in the stochastic mixed integer program defined to model the payoff-maximizing objective of a GENCO. Scenario reduction algorithms are used to deal with the computational burden. Two reliability test systems were chosen to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for the ST decision-making process for future planned outages from the point of view of a GENCO.

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“…The failure rate l and the failure frequency f are numeric with very close values for power system components, although they are conceptually different [7,10,23,26]. Failure frequency and failure rate, often replace each other in practical engineering calculations of power system risk evaluation [10,23].…”

Section: Fuzzy Modeling Of Failure Ratementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Q denotes the probability of failure of at least one component in the system and Z the number of system state samples. The accuracy level can be expressed by the equation (11) [23,26]:…”

Section: Monte Carlo Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo technique for reliability assessment in transmission power systems

Canizes

Soares

Vale

et al. 2012

Energy

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a b s t r a c tThis paper proposes a new methodology to reduce the probability of occurring states that cause load curtailment, while minimizing the involved costs to achieve that reduction. The methodology is supported by a hybrid method based on Fuzzy Set and Monte Carlo Simulation to catch both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters of transmission power system.The novelty of this research work consists in proposing two fundamentals approaches: 1) a global steady approach which deals with building the model of a faulted transmission power system aiming at minimizing the unavailability corresponding to each faulted component in transmission power system. This, results in the minimal global cost investment for the faulted components in a system states sample of the transmission network; 2) a dynamic iterative approach that checks individually the investment's effect on the transmission network.A case study using the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Buses is presented to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.

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Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods

Abstract: Billinton, Roy.Reliability assessment of electric power systems using Monte Carlo methods / Roy BIlHnton, Wenyuan Li. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and Index.1. Electric power systems-Reliability-Mathematics.

Cited by 1,305 publications

References 0 publications

Electricity Network Reliability Planning and Evaluation Considering Flexible Solutions

Electricity Network Reliability Planning and Evaluation Considering Flexible Solutions

Stochastic short-term maintenance scheduling of GENCOs in an oligopolistic electricity market

Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo technique for reliability assessment in transmission power systems

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