Reliability-based analysis of Lázaro Cárdenas breakwater including the economical impact of the port activity

De-León, David; Loza, Lourdes

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101276

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Seaport climate change impact assessment was also recently presented [48] with use of a multi-level methodology following a sequential path that starts with a quantitative analysis focused on multi-hazard and multi-impact evaluation with climate information based on indicators. More localized in-depth analyses of important case studies refer to addressing long-term operational risk management in port docks under climate change, modelling the impact of climate change on Spanish harbors' operability, and reliability-based investigations of breakwater structures including the economic impact on port activities [49][50][51]. Malliouri et al [52,53] have also performed a reliability analysis of rubble mound breakwaters based on an easy-to-use methodology to assess the failure probabilities of coastal structures based on probabilistic representation of sea conditions at the structures' location.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis of Nearshore Sea-State Parameters under the Effects of Climate Change: Application to the Greek Coastal Zone and Port Structures

Γαλιατσάτου

Makris²,

Krestenitis³

et al. 2021

JMSE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the present work, a methodological framework, based on nonstationary extreme value analysis of nearshore sea-state parameters, is proposed for the identification of climate change impacts on coastal zone and port defense structures. The applications refer to the estimation of coastal hazards on characteristic Mediterranean microtidal littoral zones and the calculation of failure probabilities of typical rubble mound breakwaters in Greek ports. The proposed methodology hinges on the extraction of extreme wave characteristics and sea levels due to storm events affecting the coast, a nonstationary extreme value analysis of sea-state parameters and coastal responses using moving time windows, a fitting of parametric trends to nonstationary parameter estimates of the extreme value models, and an assessment of nonstationary failure probabilities on engineered port protection. The analysis includes estimation of extreme total water level (TWL) on several Greek coasts to approximate the projected coastal flooding hazard under climate change conditions in the 21st century. The TWL calculation considers the wave characteristics, sea level height due to storm surges, mean sea level (MSL) rise, and astronomical tidal ranges of the study areas. Moreover, the failure probabilities of a typical coastal defense structure are assessed for several failure mechanisms, considering variations in MSL, extreme wave climates, and storm surges in the vicinity of ports, within the framework of reliability analysis based on the nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The methodology supports the investigation of future safety levels and possible periods of increased vulnerability of the studied structure to different ultimate limit states under extreme marine weather conditions associated with climate change, aiming at the development of appropriate upgrading solutions. The analysis suggests that the assumption of stationarity might underestimate the total failure probability of coastal structures under future extreme marine conditions.

show abstract

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis of Nearshore Sea-State Parameters under the Effects of Climate Change: Application to the Greek Coastal Zone and Port Structures

Γαλιατσάτου

Makris²,

Krestenitis³

et al. 2021

JMSE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…On this basis, the reasonable target reliability index is determined by comprehensive analysis and adjustment. Currently, the methods used to calculate reliability index in the calibration method include first-order second-moment method, [4][5][6] second-order second-moment method, 7,8 Monte Carlo method, [9][10][11] and others. When the performance function is linear or weakly nonlinear, it is more accurate to use the first-order secondmoment method to determine the target reliability index.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Wiener degradation process with drift‐based approach of determining target reliability index of concrete structures

Zhang

Liang

Niu

et al. 2022

Quality & Reliability Eng

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper, a novel approach is proposed to determine target reliability index based on modeling performance degradation of concrete structures as a stochastic process. First, the Wiener process with drift is used to simulate the degradation process of relative dynamic elastic modulus of concrete, and the drift coefficient and diffusion coefficient of Wiener process are estimated according to the experimental data of degradation of relative dynamic elastic modulus. Then, based on the relations between concrete compressive strength, dynamic elastic modulus, and relative dynamic elastic modulus, the relationship between compressive strength and the amount of degradation of relative dynamic elastic modulus are deduced, and then, the statistical parameters of concrete compressive strength under different service time can be calculated.Finally, based on the established limit state equation of flexural capacity of the weak section and the statistical parameters of compressive strength at different times, the reliability index of a structure under different service life is calculated. On the other hand, according to the drift Wiener process model of relative dynamic elastic modulus degradation of concrete, the time-varying failure probability of structural durability degradation is calculated based on the first-passage failure probability formula of drift Wiener process. Taking a concrete plant structure as an example, the time-varying reliability index calculated based on the limit state equation and the time-varying failure probability obtained based on the first-passage failure probability analysis of drift Wiener process are compared, and then the recommended values of target reliability index of structural bearing capacity are comprehensively determined.

show abstract

Reliability-Based Analysis of a Caisson Breakwater with the Application of Bayesian Inference

Moghadam

Shafieefar

Akbari

2021

J. Marine. Sci. Appl.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Reliability-based analysis of Lázaro Cárdenas breakwater including the economical impact of the port activity

Cited by 7 publications

References 15 publications

Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis of Nearshore Sea-State Parameters under the Effects of Climate Change: Application to the Greek Coastal Zone and Port Structures

Nonstationary Extreme Value Analysis of Nearshore Sea-State Parameters under the Effects of Climate Change: Application to the Greek Coastal Zone and Port Structures

A Wiener degradation process with drift‐based approach of determining target reliability index of concrete structures

Reliability-Based Analysis of a Caisson Breakwater with the Application of Bayesian Inference

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About