Reliability-based calibration for a mechanics-based fatigue cracking design procedure

Dinegdae, Yared; Birgisson, Björn

doi:10.1080/14680629.2015.1094397

Cited by 10 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…A two-component analytical reliability analysis methodology has been suggested by Dinegdae and Birgisson ( 12 , 20 ) for pavement reliability computation. The first component uses a RSM for generating a surrogate model for the performance function, whereas the second component computes the reliability using the Rackwitz–Fiessler (R–F) algorithm, which is one variety of the FORM.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A reliability analysis which is based on a probabilistic method of uncertainty quantification or propagation allows the effective incorporation of variabilities and uncertainties of the design inputs on the predicted performance. The first order reliability method (FORM), which is a typical example of an analytical reliability method, allows the propagation of variabilities in the design process and has been implemented for pavement reliability applications ( 10 – 12 ). Furthermore, FORM can be used to develop a reliability-based codified design procedure in the format of the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) method, which delivers pavement sections of uniform reliability level, thus providing the proper platform for life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) ( 12 – 14 ).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first order reliability method (FORM), which is a typical example of an analytical reliability method, allows the propagation of variabilities in the design process and has been implemented for pavement reliability applications ( 10 – 12 ). Furthermore, FORM can be used to develop a reliability-based codified design procedure in the format of the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) method, which delivers pavement sections of uniform reliability level, thus providing the proper platform for life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) ( 12 – 14 ). The implementation of analytical based reliability analysis techniques for pavement application is complicated by these techniques requiring the performance function to be an explicit function of the random variables, which is unavailable in most M-E design procedures.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Towards a Reliability-Based Pavement Design using Response Surface Methods

Dinegdae¹,

Onifade²,

Birgisson

et al. 2018

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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Reliability has been incorporated in many pavement design procedures to account for the effects of inputs variabilities and uncertainties on predicted performance. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) mechanistic empirical pavement design guide (MEPDG) computes the reliability of pavement sections with the assumption that the variability of predicted distresses follows normal distribution. This approach does not account for the systematic contribution of each design input variability on the overall output variance. This paper evaluates a two-component reliability analysis methodology for pavement application. The two-component reliability analysis methodology uses a response surface method (RSM) for a surrogate model generation and the first order reliability method (FORM) for reliability computation. Three different response surface methods (central composite, Box–Behnken and Doehlert designs) were implemented and statistically verified for their suitability for surrogate model generation. The two-component reliability analysis methodology was further utilized for the generation of partial safety factors for the development of a load and resistance factor design (LRFD) procedure for pavement applications. Field pavement sections with a wide range in design inputs and target reliabilities were used to evaluate the proposed reliability analysis methodology. The results have shown that the three RSM can be used effectively for pavement reliability problems.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Towards a Reliability-Based Pavement Design using Response Surface Methods

Dinegdae¹,

Onifade²,

Birgisson

et al. 2018

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…These partial safety factors are derived from reliability analysis and reflect the degree of influence and associated variability of design parameters and required safety level. The LRFD method has already been adopted by many structural design specifications (e.g., 12, 13, 14) and there is an ongoing research regarding its application and implementation for pavement analysis and design (15,16,17). Adopting a LRFD procedure for pavement analysis and design would provide a significant benefit as it mitigates some of the drawbacks and limitations that exist in the current procedures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reliability-Based Design Procedure for Fatigue Cracking in Asphalt Pavements

Dinegdae

Birgisson

2016

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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The need to account for design inputs variabilities effect on predicted performance has led many design procedures to address the issue of reliability for pavement applications. The Florida cracking model utilizes an empirically derived reliability for fatigue cracking design of asphalt pavements. A reliability approach, which is based on probabilistic uncertainty quantification, is necessary in order to account properly and effectively for the contribution of the variability in each parameter to the overall variance. This paper presents a load and resistance factor design (LRFD) procedure for the Florida cracking model. By delivering designs of uniform reliability, LRFD provides the basis for developing quality control and quality assurance standards. A first order reliability method (FORM) which incorporates central composite design (CCD) based surrogate model is employed to compute the reliability and formulate the partial safety factors. The reliability calibration was achieved based on field pavement sections that have a wide range in design inputs and target reliability. Illustrative designs based on the developed LRFD procedure has shown the effectiveness of the partial safety factors, and thus giving further confirmation to the credibility of the employed reliability analysis methodology. INTRODUCTIONLoad induced top-down fatigue cracking (i.e., cracking that initiates at the surface of asphalt concrete (AC) layer and propagates downward) has been observed in many parts of the world (e.g., 1-4). It is widely accepted that top-down cracking results from a critical combination of load, thermal and aging effects. A multi-year research at the University of Florida has led to the development of a new hot mix asphalt fracture mechanics (HMA-FM) framework. HMA-FM is based on visco-elastic principle and predicts the initiation and propagation of top-down cracking (e.g., 5, 6). Based on the performance evaluation of field pavement sections, a parameter termed energy ratio (ER) which relates well with the observed performance in the field was identified and introduced into HMA-FM (7). Utilizing ER as a design criterion, a mechanistic empirical (M-E) pavement design model for top-down fatigue cracking was developed. The model was calibrated and validated on a number of field pavement sections from the State of Florida and has been found to be successful in distinguishing pavement sections which exhibited cracking from those that did not. The energy ratio method has recognized the importance of accounting for the effects of uncertainty in design inputs on predicted performance, and has therefore incorporated an empirically derived reliability concept. These reliability factors were developed by fitting computed ER values of a single section with respective target reliabilities without accounting directly for the effects of design inputs variabilities on performance (8). A reliability which is not based on probabilistic method of uncertainty propagation might not give designs of uniform target reliability th...

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“…In the recent past, various concepts related to probabilistic pavement design method are widely researched [5,[18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26]. Most of these research works are related to design of new flexible pavement [5,23,27,28].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing probabilistic approach for asphaltic overlay design by considering variability of input parameters

Maji

Singh

Chawla

2016

Innov. Infrastruct. Solut.

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The asphaltic overlay design process considers various input parameters. These parameters are probabilistic in nature, but the current design process adopts deterministic values. This study proposes a comprehensive probabilistic approach for asphaltic overlay design to accommodate the variations in pavement layer thicknesses, pavement layer moduli, vehicle damage factor (VDF), lane distribution factor (LDF) and vehicle growth rate (r). An analytical method, first order second moment (FOSM), is used in developing the proposed design approach. A design example based on real world falling weight deflectometer (FWD) data of a 30 km long highway stretch is worked out to illustrate the proposed design approach. The results indicate that the current deterministic approach estimates an overlay thickness with approximately 95% reliability. Detail analysis of results from the proposed probabilistic approach denotes that choosing marginally lower design reliability could significantly reduce the overlay thickness. A sensitivity analysis of pavement layer moduli indicated that the asphaltic overlay thickness is sensitive to resilient modulus of base layer for fatigue and subgrade layer for rutting. The probability based design approach can accommodate variability of field material properties and construction practices in the asphaltic overlay design process.

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Reliability-based calibration for a mechanics-based fatigue cracking design procedure

Cited by 10 publications

References 12 publications

Towards a Reliability-Based Pavement Design using Response Surface Methods

Towards a Reliability-Based Pavement Design using Response Surface Methods

Reliability-Based Design Procedure for Fatigue Cracking in Asphalt Pavements

Developing probabilistic approach for asphaltic overlay design by considering variability of input parameters

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