Reliability prediction: the turn-over point

Abstract

& CONCLUSIONSThe main objective of this paper is to present an approach for a practical, easy to implement reliability predction procedure. The proposed procedure is based upon the combined use of a number of reliability data sources, calculation methods and deterministic models. The procedure includes "tailoring" of the models according to their defined criteria, and with emphasis on the use of deterministic models whenever appropriate and possible. The criteria for reliability data sources and models are defined. The paper emphasizes, as most important, the use of inside manufacturing data from different production stages.It details mathematical principles for the use of information from incoming inspection, from Environmental Stress Screening (ESS) and from the field. A reliability test of PCB leads for "parametric" deterministic reliability modeling, is illustrated . Some advantages of the recommended methodology are: improved accuracy of reliability predction, simplicity of use, and incorporation of product line information. This approach is usefiil not only for reliability prediction, but also for providing engineering feedback for reliability improvements.

A RAMS analysis for a precision scale-up configuration of “Smart Street" pilot site: an Industry 4.0 Case Study

“…In some cases, the Parts Count results are used as the final mean-time-betweenfailure (MTBF) estimator, despite that the results can be conservative because of the default stress levels assumed in the methodology. This situation sometimes leads to an excess of spare components [46].…”

Reliability Analysis of Wireless Sensor Network for Smart Farming Applications

“…This represents the main disadvantages of the handbook and explains why the results of such predictions nowadays are considered too conservative. Despite this, many papers in recent literature use the results of MIL-HDBK 217F prediction as a benchmark with the other handbooks (see for instance but not only [50][51][52][53][54][55]). MIL-HDBK 217F is based on several different models of the failure rate evaluation of electronic components.…”

Physics-of-failure-based prognostics for electronic products

“…These methods generally assume the components of the product have failure rates (most often assumed to be constant) that can be modified by independent 'modifiers' to account for various quality, operating and environmental conditions. There are numerous well documented problems with this type of modelling approach (Cushing et al, 1993;Leonard, 1991;Talmor and Arueti, 1997;Wong, 1990). The general consensus is that these handbooks should never be used, because they are inaccurate for predicting actual field failures and provide highly misleading predictions, which can result in poor designs and logistics decisions (Cushing et al, 1993;Morris, 1990).…”