Reliably predicting pollinator abundance: Challenges of calibrating process‐based ecological models

Gardner, Emma; Breeze, Tom D.; Clough, Yann; Smith, Henrik G.; Baldock, Katherine C. R.; Campbell, Alistair John; Garratt, Michael P. D.; Gillespie, Mark A.; Kunin, William E.; McKerchar, Megan; Memmott, Jane; Potts, Simon G.; Senapathi, Deepa; Stone, Graham; Wäckers, Félix; Westbury, Duncan B.; Wilby, Andrew; Oliver, Tom H.

doi:10.1111/2041-210x.13483

Cited by 31 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Our findings suggest that understorey management is an important factor driving this effect. We found higher pollinator visitation to apple flowers above flowering than mown understoreys, despite a sparse flower resource in the understorey at the time of apple flowering and the small scale of the plots compared with the foraging distances of pollinators [61]. Nevertheless, this result is supported by studies of apple orchards where flower cover increased pollinator visitation [32,62].…”

Section: Effects In the Apple Trees: Natural Pest Control And Pollinationsupporting

confidence: 58%

“…The effects we find in this study could be less than those achievable under field-scale conditions because of insect movement between treatments and into and out of experimental blocks [72,74]. Furthermore, the scale of the study is considerably less than typical pollinator dispersal distances [61], which would mask any effects of nesting resource availability. This was a one-year study, and therefore stronger contrasts between the two management regimes might be expected over a longer time period.…”

Section: Constraintsmentioning

confidence: 63%

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Management to Promote Flowering Understoreys Benefits Natural Enemy Diversity, Aphid Suppression and Income in an Agroforestry System

et al. 2021

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Agroforestry systems, where productive trees are integrated into agricultural land, can deliver benefits to biodiversity, natural pest control, and pollination, but the effects are highly variable. Recent advances in our understanding of flower strips in agricultural systems suggest that the management of the tree row understorey could be an important contributor to this variation. Here, we compare two cutting regimes for an understorey, originally seeded with the same flower mix, in the tree rows of an apple-arable agroforestry system: (i) uncut vegetation to promote a flowering understorey, and (ii) regularly mown vegetation. We recorded the effects of management on invertebrate pests, natural enemies, and pollinators, in both the apple and arable components. Apple trees above flowering understoreys supported significantly: (i) more natural enemies early in the season, (ii) fewer aphid colonies, (iii) fewer aphid-damaged fruits, and (iv) higher pollinator visitation, compared with those above mown understoreys. In the arable crop alleys, both the taxonomic richness and Shannon diversity of ground-based natural enemies were significantly higher adjacent to flowering understoreys, compared with those adjacent to mown understoreys, early in the season. Financial modelling based on aphid damage to apples, mowing costs, and income from Countryside Stewardship grants, indicated that flowering understoreys increased farm income by GBP 231.02 per ha of agroforestry compared with mown understoreys. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that management to promote flowering understoreys in agroforestry systems can be a win-win option to improve invertebrate diversity, associated ecosystem services, and farm income.

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Section: Effects In the Apple Trees: Natural Pest Control And Pollinationsupporting

confidence: 58%

Section: Constraintsmentioning

confidence: 63%

Management to Promote Flowering Understoreys Benefits Natural Enemy Diversity, Aphid Suppression and Income in an Agroforestry System

et al. 2021

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“…Poll4pop (Gardner et al., 2020a; developed via Häussler et al., 2017; Lonsdorf et al., 2009; Olsson et al., 2015) is a process‐based model that predicts spatially explicit abundance and flower visitation rates by central‐place‐foraging pollinators (i.e. bees) in a given landscape, based on bee nesting and foraging habitat preferences and typical foraging distances.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For a detailed description of the model, see Häussler et al (2017) and for validation of the model in Great Britain (including sensitivity analysis) see Gardner et al (2020c), henceforth G2020.…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…due to flower morphology) will potentially experience even greater benefits from increasing alternative habitat via boundary features. Thirdly, although sophisticated and capable of reproducing observed bee abundances (Gardner et al, 2020c), our model does not include the movement of males or the explicit movement paths and mortality of dispersing females beyond their inability to find a suitable nest site. Instead, a standard dispersal distance is assumed independent of landscape context.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Field boundary features can stabilise bee populations and the pollination of mass‐flowering crops in rotational systems

Gardner

Breeze

Clough

et al. 2021

Journal of Applied Ecology

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On‐site floral resources and surrounding landscape characteristics impact pollinator biodiversity at solar parks

Blaydes,

Potts,

Whyatt

et al. 2024

Ecol Sol and Evidence

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There is increasing land use change for solar parks and growing recognition that they could be used to support insect pollinators. However, understanding of pollinator response to solar park developments is limited and empirical data are lacking. We combine field observations with landcover data to quantify the impact of on‐site floral resources and surrounding landscape characteristics on solar park pollinator abundance and species richness. We surveyed pollinators and flowering plants at 15 solar parks across England in 2021, used a landcover map to assess the surrounding high‐quality habitat and aerial imagery to measure woody linear features (hedgerows, woodland edges and lines of trees). In total, 1397 pollinators were recorded, including 899 butterflies (64%), 171 hoverflies (12%), 161 bumble bees (12%), 157 moths (11%), and nine honeybees (<1%). At least 30 pollinator species were observed, the majority of which were common, generalist species. Pollinator biodiversity varied between solar parks and was explained by a combination of on‐site floral resources and surrounding landscape characteristics. Floral species richness was the most influential on‐site characteristic and woody linear feature density generally had a greater impact than the cover of surrounding high‐quality habitats, although drivers differed by pollinator group. Our findings suggest that a range of factors affect pollinator biodiversity at solar parks, but maximising floral resources within a park through appropriate management actions may be the most achievable way to support most pollinator groups, especially where solar parks are located in resource‐poor, disconnected landscapes.

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Reliably predicting pollinator abundance: Challenges of calibrating process‐based ecological models

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Cited by 31 publications

References 39 publications

Management to Promote Flowering Understoreys Benefits Natural Enemy Diversity, Aphid Suppression and Income in an Agroforestry System

Management to Promote Flowering Understoreys Benefits Natural Enemy Diversity, Aphid Suppression and Income in an Agroforestry System

Field boundary features can stabilise bee populations and the pollination of mass‐flowering crops in rotational systems

On‐site floral resources and surrounding landscape characteristics impact pollinator biodiversity at solar parks

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