Remaining lifetime modelling of power transformers on individual and population level

Wouters, P.A.A.F.; Schijndel, A. van; Wetzer, J.M.

doi:10.1109/icsd.2010.5568112

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Reliability forecast is always hampered by uncertainties in the degradation process parameters and in the operational conditions. For physical ageing processes, as the paper winding degradation, an uncertainty analysis is included 19–21. Besides knowledge on the uncertainty itself, this analysis informs on the most critical factors determining this uncertainty.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As an example, the population reliability of a fixed load growth for the transformer fleet of two Dutch utilities, shown in Figure 1, is analysed for paper winding insulation 20, 21. The average initial load was estimated to be 0.4 p.u., and a load growth was assumed of 1.5%, 2% and 2.5%.…”

Section: Integration Paper Insulation Bushings Tap‐changer Reliabilmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Refs. 20, 21 it is shown how this approach allows determining consequences of maintenance and replacement strategies.…”

Section: Integration Paper Insulation Bushings Tap‐changer Reliabilmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The reliability is obtained by integration over all DP-values, indicated by n, according to Here p dp is the distribution density function of the DP-value and P th the probability that the transformer will fail with a specific DP-value. To estimate the uncertainty in the reliability an error estimation technique is used, which is discussed elsewhere [19][20][21][22].…”

Section: Paper Insulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Approach for an integral power transformer reliability model

Schijndel

Wouters

Steennis

et al. 2011

Int Trans Elec Energy Syst

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SUMMARYIn electrical power transmission and distribution networks power transformers represent a crucial group of assets both in terms of reliability and investments. In order to safeguard the required quality at acceptable costs, decisions must be based on a reliable forecast of future behaviour. The aim of the present study is to develop an integral transformer lifetime model which involves degradation mechanisms for most relevant subsystems, applicable to individual power transformers and transformer populations. In this paper, we present a predictive model for power transformer reliability which involves three essential ingredients: failure statistics, physical understanding of the degradation process, and actual knowledge of the present condition. The model is based on evaluation of existing literature and past experience on degradation mechanisms, failure modes and diagnostic techniques. The model is illustrated for integral reliability of three transformer failure modes, related to the degradation of the transformer winding insulation, of bushings and of tap-changers.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Integration Paper Insulation Bushings Tap‐changer Reliabilmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Refs. 20, 21 it is shown how this approach allows determining consequences of maintenance and replacement strategies.…”

Section: Integration Paper Insulation Bushings Tap‐changer Reliabilmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Paper Insulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Approach for an integral power transformer reliability model

Schijndel

Wouters

Steennis

et al. 2011

Int Trans Elec Energy Syst

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“…Power transformers are one of the most critical and costly elements of modern power systems. According to the viewed literature, a power transformer is expected to operate satisfactorily up to 40-45 years [2][3][4][5]. The increase in the share of power transformers with a lifetime of more than 25-30 years exacerbates the problem of ensuring an objective assessment of technical condition and operation risk determination of electric power systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Parametric identification of fuzzy model for power transformer based on real operation data

Bardyk

Bolotnyi

2017

EEJET

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lulose insulation life is equal to the transformer life. Power transformer failures are commonly caused by events such as a short circuit or a lightning strike. Due to transformer aging, the mechanical strength of paper insulation will decrease and short circuit events like this can cause the ultimate transformer failure. Because of their random occurrence, we cannot be certain when the final transformer failure is going to happen. However, if the strength of the latest paper insulation is known, it is possible to make an estimation of when these events might occur [7]. At the same time, the practice of electrical equipment operation of electric power systems shows that there is only limited statistical information. Today the registration and processing of damage data, which are detected during repairs are not sufficiently systematized, since certain damages that occur during the operation are not always detected. Total technical condition assessment of power transformers usually involves aggregating the state of the following individual elements: winding, magnetic core, solid insulation, high-voltage bushings, load tap changer, etc. The problem of complexity of technical condition assessment and service life prediction is determined by the measurement frequency, but power transformers are not always equipped with appropriate monitoring systems. In addition, the criteria values of technical condition parameters separating one power transformer from another

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