Remote Sensing of Climatic Anomalies and West Nile Virus Incidence in the Northern Great Plains of the United States

Chuang, Ting Wu; Wimberly, Michael C.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0046882

Cited by 62 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 56 publications

(59 reference statements)

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“…Our study also demonstrates that remote sensing medium spatial resolution imagery as MODIS can provide relevant environmental indicators for studies on WNV risk, as it was also recently shown in Northern America [34]. This analysis should include high resolution geolocation of WND cases (i.e.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 65%

“…The two latter were derived from MODIS imagery. These three indices vary seasonally and inter-annually, and are hypothesized to influence mosquito population dynamics, and WNV transmission [31,34,42]. …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Temperature has been found to be associated with WND outbreaks in the Old [12] and New World [34]. Indeed, elevated temperatures favor vector competence, accelerate mosquito development and reproduction rates, thus influencing mosquito-to-vertebrate transmission rates [43,44].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, vegetation indices such as the NDVI have been identified as risk factors for WND outbreaks occurrence in previous North American studies [34,47]. NDVI may serve as an indicator of environmental conditions suitable for vegetation growth and emergence of mosquito populations [34].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Environmental predictors of West Nile fever risk in Europe

et al. 2014

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BackgroundWest Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen of global public health importance. Transmission of WNV is determined by abiotic and biotic factors. The objective of this study was to examine environmental variables as predictors of WNV risk in Europe and neighboring countries, considering the anomalies of remotely sensed water and vegetation indices and of temperature at the locations of West Nile fever (WNF) outbreaks reported in humans between 2002 and 2013.MethodsThe status of infection by WNV in relationship to environmental and climatic risk factors was analyzed at the district level using logistic regression models. Temperature, remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) anomalies, as well as population, birds’ migratory routes, and presence of wetlands were considered as explanatory variables.ResultsThe anomalies of temperature in July, of MNDWI in early June, the presence of wetlands, the location under migratory routes, and the occurrence of a WNF outbreak the previous year were identified as risk factors. The best statistical model according to the Akaike Information Criterion was used to map WNF risk areas in 2012 and 2013. Model validations showed a good level of prediction: area under Receiver Operator Characteristic curve = 0.854 (95% Confidence Interval 0.850-0.856) for internal validation and 0.819 (95% Confidence Interval 0.814-0.823) (2012) and 0.853 (95% Confidence Interval 0.850-0.855) (2013) for external validations, respectively.ConclusionsWNF incidence is increasing in Europe and WNV is expanding into new areas where it had never been observed before. Our model can be used to direct surveillance activities and public health interventions for the upcoming WNF season.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 65%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Environmental predictors of West Nile fever risk in Europe

et al. 2014

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“…Among these are seasonal shifts in mosquito feeding preferences from amplifying bird hosts to humans after birds have migrated 42 or differences in land use that impact bird reservoir community composition or viral prevalence. [52][53][54][55] Enzootic transmission of the virus can be decreased if mosquitoes feed on low reservoir-competent avian hosts 56 or by herd immunity in the bird population. 57 Others have documented the impact of human behavior and interventions on WNV incidence patterns such as mosquito control, neglected swimming pools that provide mosquito breeding habitat, or having water-holding containers in the backyard.…”

Section: 48mentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological Conditions Associated with Increased Incidence of West Nile Virus Disease in the United States, 2004–2012

Hahn¹,

Monaghan²,

Hayden³

et al. 2015

The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Abstract. West Nile virus (WNV) is a leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the United States. Annual seasonal outbreaks vary in size and location. Predicting where and when higher than normal WNV transmission will occur can help direct limited public health resources. We developed models for the contiguous United States to identify meteorological anomalies associated with above average incidence of WNV neuroinvasive disease from 2004 to 2012. We used county-level WNV data reported to ArboNET and meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. As a result of geographic differences in WNV transmission, we divided the United States into East and West, and 10 climate regions. Above average annual temperature was associated with increased likelihood of higher than normal WNV disease incidence, nationally and in most regions. Lower than average annual total precipitation was associated with higher disease incidence in the eastern United States, but the opposite was true in most western regions. Although multiple factors influence WNV transmission, these findings show that anomalies in temperature and precipitation are associated with above average WNV disease incidence. Readily accessible meteorological data may be used to develop predictive models to forecast geographic areas with elevated WNV disease risk before the coming season.

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