Remote sensing technology and land use analysis in food security assessment

Brown, M. E.

doi:10.1080/1747423x.2016.1195455

Cited by 34 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 103 publications

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“…At present about 260 million people are chronically undernourished in Africa (FAOSTAT, 2015) and this is despite the fact that we also estimate a per capita NPP surplus of 860 (±144) kg DW yr −1 (corresponding to 309 (±52) Mt DW yr −1 ) in the Sahel for the year 2000. This implies that current challenges are associated with other determinants such as access to and the distribution of resources (Brown, 2016;Olsson, 1993;Pinstrup-Andersen, 2009). These challenges are set to increase in the future, particularly for scenarios with high social and economic inequalities (SSP4).…”

Section: Sahel Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response to RC1

2017

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Sallaba, F.; Olin, S.; Engström, K.; Abdi, A. M.; Boke-Olén, N.; Lehsten, V.; Ardö, J.; Seaquist, J. W.Abstract. In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production) supply-demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell), hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply shortfalls stem from the assumptions that underpin the shared socio-economic pathways rather than the representative concentration pathways.Our results suggest that the UN sustainable development goals for eradicating hunger are at high risk for failure. This emphasizes the importance of policy interventions such as the implementation of sustainable and healthy diets, family planning, reducing yield gaps, and encouraging the transfer of resources to impoverished areas via trade relations.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

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Section: Sahel Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response to RC1

2017

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“…; Whitcraft et al. ; Brown ), demanding its regular update in a consistent and systematic manner (Wulder et al. ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Land cover mapping is one of the main applications of remote sensing and a clear requirement of environmental monitoring initiatives. Among others, land cover is essential in climate change mitigation (Dirmeyer et al 2010;Kalacska et al 2017), habitat management (Lang et al 2015;Lucas et al 2015;Vaz et al 2015) and food security monitoring (Verburg et al 2013;Whitcraft et al 2015;Brown 2016), demanding its regular update in a consistent and systematic manner .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From ecology to remote sensing: using animals to map land cover

Remelgado

Safi

Wegmann³

2019

Remote Sens Ecol Conserv

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Land cover is a key variable in monitoring applications and new processing technologies made deriving this information easier. Yet, classification algorithms remain dependent on samples collected on the field and field campaigns are limited by financial, infrastructural and political boundaries. Here, animal tracking data could be an asset. Looking at the land cover dependencies of animal behaviour, we can obtain land cover samples over places that are difficult to access. Following this premise, we evaluated the potential of animal movement data to map land cover. Specifically, we used 13 White Storks (Cicona cicona) individuals of the same population to map agriculture within three test regions distributed along their migratory track. The White Stork has adapted to foraging over agricultural lands, making it an ideal source of samples to map this land use. We applied a presence–absence modelling approach over a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series and validated our classifications, with high‐resolution land cover information. Our results suggest White Stork movement is useful to map agriculture, however, we identified some limitations. We achieved high accuracies (F1‐scores > 0.8) for two test regions, but observed poor results over one region. This can be explained by differences in land management practices. The animals preferred agriculture in every test region, but our data showed a biased distribution of training samples between irrigated and non‐irrigated land. When both options occurred, the animals disregarded non‐irrigated land leading to its misclassification as non‐agriculture. Additionally, we found difference between the GPS observation dates and the harvest times for non‐irrigated crops. Given the White Stork takes advantage of managed land to search for prey, the inactivity of these fields was the likely culprit of their underrepresentation. Including more species attracted to agriculture – with other land‐use dependencies and observation times – can contribute to better results in similar applications.

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“…At present about 260 million people are chronically undernourished in Africa (FAOSTAT, 2015) and this is despite the fact that we also estimate a per capita NPP surplus of 860 (±144) kg DW yr −1 (corresponding to 309 (±52) Mt DW yr −1 ) in the Sahel for the year 2000. This implies that current challenges are associated with other determinants such as access to and the distribution of resources (Brown, 2016;Olsson, 1993;PinstrupAndersen, 2009). These challenges are set to increase in the future, particularly for scenarios with high social and economic inequalities (SSP4).…”

Section: Sahel Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite the large increase in agricultural production, global food security is not ensured (due to access and distribution challenges; e.g. Brown, 2016;Pinstrup-Andersen, 2009), as there are presently 792 million people chronically undernourished across the planet, one-third of which are in Africa (FAOSTAT, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

et al. 2017

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Abstract. In the 21st century, climate change in combination with increasing demand, mainly from population growth, will exert greater pressure on the ecosystems of the Sahel to supply food and feed resources. The balance between supply and demand, defined as the annual biomass required for human consumption, serves as a key metric for quantifying basic resource shortfalls over broad regions.Here we apply an exploratory modelling framework to analyse the variations in the timing and geography of different NPP (net primary production) supply-demand scenarios, with distinct assumptions determining supply and demand, for the 21st century Sahel. We achieve this by coupling a simple NPP supply model forced with projections from four representative concentration pathways with a global, reduced-complexity demand model driven by socio-economic data and assumptions derived from five shared socio-economic pathways.For the scenario that deviates least from current socio-economic and climate trends, we find that per capita NPP begins to outstrip supply in the 2040s, while by 2050 half the countries in the Sahel experience NPP shortfalls. We also find that despite variations in the timing of the onset of NPP shortfalls, demand cannot consistently be met across the majority of scenarios. Moreover, large between-country variations are shown across the scenarios, in which by the year 2050 some countries consistently experience shortage or surplus, while others shift from surplus to shortage. At the local level (i.e. grid cell), hotspots of total NPP shortfall consistently occur in the same locations across all scenarios but vary in size and magnitude. These hotspots are linked to population density and high demand. For all scenarios, total simulated NPP supply doubles by 2050 but is outpaced by increasing demand due to a combination of population growth and the adoption of diets rich in animal products. Finally, variations in the timing of the onset and end of supply shortfalls stem from the assumptions that underpin the shared socio-economic pathways rather than the representative concentration pathways.Our results suggest that the UN sustainable development goals for eradicating hunger are at high risk for failure. This emphasizes the importance of policy interventions such as the implementation of sustainable and healthy diets, family planning, reducing yield gaps, and encouraging the transfer of resources to impoverished areas via trade relations.

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Remote sensing technology and land use analysis in food security assessment

Cited by 34 publications

References 103 publications

Response to RC1

Response to RC1

From ecology to remote sensing: using animals to map land cover

Future supply and demand of net primary production in the Sahel

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