The purpose of this study is two fold. First, to estimate the
impact of institutional and non-institutional arrangements on bilateral
trade, and second to analyse the impact of SAFTA on bilateral trade in
the short as well as in the long run. The empirical analysis which is
based on the panel of eight South Asian countries, comprising data over
the period i.e. 1975–2013 is conducted using fixed effects model along
with Pooled Mean-Group (PMG) estimator for estimating the short and
long-run relationships. The analysis has shown that trade agreements
including South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and the Most Favoured
Nation (MFN) are not effective in promoting trade, due to low
institutional quality and stringent non-institutional arrangements,
including high tariff along with low physical infrastructure. Further
empirical analysis has shown that both SAFTA and MFN can only contribute
to bilateral trade significantly, if complemented by institutional
framework. As a policy lesson, to improve the trade ties between India
and Pakistan, improvement in physical as well as soft infrastructure is
required. Any trade agreements between the two, including MFN can only
be effective, when it is supported by a well-defined and enforced
institutional framework that ensure the implementation of policy reforms
needed to reduce tariff rate and remove non-tariff barriers.