“…17 Having observed evidence x, the fact-finder can update its assessment in any number of ways. Perhaps the most intuitive updating process might be Bayes rule (e.g., Feess et al 2009), under which the fact-finder uses the evidence observed to generate a posterior conditional probability density on the defendant's actual behavior, | , . (Note that so long as v and x are not completely statistically independent of one another, the evidence represented by x is statistically "probative," so that this updated density will generally not…”