Representation in Wales: An empirical analysis of policy divisions between voters and candidates

Trumm, Siim

doi:10.1177/1369148117740284

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…While it is impossible to validate candidates' self-perceived campaign behaviour, there is evidence to support the reliability of the survey data. It has been shown that the views expressed by successful candidates in the 2016 Welsh Candidate Study are in fact consistent with their subsequent parliamentary activity (Trumm 2018). In addition, the responses to the 2016 Welsh Candidate Study that can be validatede.g., candidacy type, demographics, use of campaign websiteshow no response bias for those respondents whose survey responses can be compared with verified data.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 94%

The best of both worlds? Evaluating the campaign behaviour of dual candidates

Trumm

2018

Electoral Studies

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The conventional wisdom of electoral politics suggests that parliamentary candidates who run for office under candidate-centred mechanisms tend to conduct more intense and personalised campaigns than those who run under party-centred ones. But what about the campaigns put in place by candidates who simultaneously run under both systems? Using original data from the 2016 Welsh Candidate Study, this article shows that dual candidates' campaign behaviour is distinct from that of their constituency and regional list counterparts. Their campaign effort tends to be more intense as well as complex than that put in place by candidates who stand in one tier only. In addition, the findings show that dual candidates' campaign messages tend to be more personalised than those of regional list candidates, but less personalised than those of constituency candidates. These results indicate that the electoral campaigns put in place by dual candidates combine elements of campaigning under candidate-centred and party-centred electoral systems Keywords Campaigns; electoral institutions; dual candidacy; voter mobilisation; devolution 1 Notable exceptions include Taiwan, Thailand, and Ukraine. 2 The 2016 devolved election in Wales offers a useful case for studying the campaign effects of candidacy type. First, all three candidacy typesconstituency, regional list, and dualwere meaningfully represented in the full population of candidates. There was a total of 457 candidates, with 208 standing as regional list candidates, 153 as constituency candidates, and 96 as dual candidates. Even the least popular category comprised of over 20% of all candidates. This allows for a meaningful analysis as no category of candidates is effectively a token category. Second, the election in question is one of the most recent parliamentary elections held in mixed member systems for which a candidate study has been conducted. This allows for an up-to-date analysis which findings reflect as current campaign dynamics as possible. Finally, while devolved elections in Britain still have low turnout levels, their 'second order' nature is significantly reduced by the strength of these administrations as they have primary legislative power over a range of policy areas and the strength of the sub-state identities in question (Jeffery and Hough 2009).

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 94%