Representative Estimates of COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rates from Three Locations in India

Cai, Rebecca; Novosad, Paul; Tandel, Vaidehi; Asher, Sam; Malani, Anup

doi:10.1101/2021.01.05.21249264

Cited by 13 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…While there have been more cases and deaths in Wave 2, there is a lower reported case-fatality rate compared to Wave 1 (1.0% vs 1.4%). This could partly be explained by reports that younger age groups were infected more in Wave 2 where the clinical infection fatality rate is lower, but this assertion is yet to be verified (46). It is important to note that we do not have full follow-up data on Wave 2 and more deaths continue to be reported in June including some states like Bihar revising previously reported death numbers (47).…”

Section: The Second Wave Dwarfs the First Wave In Indiamentioning

confidence: 80%

Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 in India: Potential role of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant and delayed interventions

Salvatore

Bhattacharyya

Purkayastha

et al. 2021

Preprint

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India has seen a surge of SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths in early part of 2021, despite having controlled the epidemic during 2020. Building on a two-strain, semi-mechanistic model that synthesizes mortality and genomic data, we find evidence that altered epidemiological properties of B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant play an important role in this resurgence in India. Under all scenarios of immune evasion, we find an increased transmissibility advantage for B.1617.2 against all previously circulating strains. Using an extended SIR model accounting for reinfections and wanning immunity, we produce evidence in support of how early public interventions in March 2021 would have helped to control transmission in the country. We argue that enhanced genomic surveillance along with constant assessment of risk associated with increased transmission is critical for pandemic responsiveness.

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Section: The Second Wave Dwarfs the First Wave In Indiamentioning

confidence: 80%

Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 in India: Potential role of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant and delayed interventions

Salvatore

Bhattacharyya

Purkayastha

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…Across the world, multiple cohort studies have described the clinical impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there are difficulties with comparing diverse, fragmented datasets, which often differ in their inclusion criteria, case definitions, and outcome measures (3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9). Such heterogeneity in study design makes international comparisons challenging.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics and outcomes of an international cohort of 400,000 hospitalised patients with Covid-19

Kartsonaki

2021

Preprint

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Background: Policymakers need robust data to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe demographic features, treatments and clinical outcomes in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 cohort, the world's largest international, standardised cohort of hospitalised patients. Methods: The dataset analysed includes COVID-19 patients hospitalised between January 2020 and May 2021. We investigated how symptoms on admission, comorbidities, risk factors, and treatments varied by age, sex, and other characteristics. We used Cox proportional hazards models to investigate associations between demographics, symptoms, comorbidities, and other factors with risk of death, admission to intensive care unit (ICU), and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Findings: 439,922 patients with laboratory-confirmed (91.7%) or clinically-diagnosed (8.3%) SARS-CoV-2 infection from 49 countries were enrolled. Age (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] per 10 years 1.49 [95% CI 1.49-1.50]) and male sex (1.26 [1.24-1.28]) were associated with a higher risk of death. Rates of admission to ICU and use of IMV increased with age up to age 60, then dropped. Symptoms, comorbidities, and treatments varied by age and had varied associations with clinical outcomes. Tuberculosis was associated with an 86% higher risk of death, and HIV with an 87% higher risk of death. Case fatality ratio varied by country partly due to differences in the clinical characteristics of recruited patients. Interpretation: The size of our international database and the standardized data collection method makes this study a reliable and comprehensive international description of COVID-19 clinical features. This is a viable model to be applied to future epidemics.

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“…Fourth, these estimates are for a limited period in the second wave of the pandemic. Cai et al 2021 present some survey evidence that the first wave of the pandemic had a large mortality impact in Bihar, and data from the civil registration system appears to confirm this picture (Banaji 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Survey evidence of excess mortality in Bihar in the second COVID-19 surge

Bamezai¹,

Banaji²,

Gupta³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The second surge of COVID-19 had a large mortality impact in India. However, there are few reliable estimates of the magnitude of this impact for India’s poorer states. This note presents results of a small-scale phone survey in Bihar which interviewed a random sample of beneficiaries of the state’s Public Distribution System. This pilot survey was conducted in June 2021 and asked more than 500 respondents about any deaths in their household since April 1, 2021.We observe an annualized Crude Death Rate of 24.3 deaths per 1,000 [95% CI 13.0-37.4] during the second surge of the pandemic in Bihar. The observed death rate is more than four times baseline mortality (5.8 deaths per 1,000 per year). The probability that mortality during the second surge was at least thrice the level of baseline mortality is 0.88. This large surge in mortality warrants an urgent public discussion on state priorities in Bihar. It also suggests the viability of and need for continuous large-scale mortality surveys.

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Representative Estimates of COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rates from Three Locations in India

Cited by 13 publications

References 57 publications

Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 in India: Potential role of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant and delayed interventions

Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 in India: Potential role of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant and delayed interventions

Characteristics and outcomes of an international cohort of 400,000 hospitalised patients with Covid-19

Survey evidence of excess mortality in Bihar in the second COVID-19 surge

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