Reproducibility of Regional-Mean Probable Precipitation by High-Resolution Climate Models

Kitajima, Toshiyuki; Yoshimatsu, Kazuyoshi; Ohno, Hiroshi; Ishihara, Koji

doi:10.3178/hrl.4.20

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…However, a super-high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with a horizontal grid size of about 20 km (MRI-GCM20) has already been developed by MRI as part of the KAKUSHIN Program, and the projection results have been used in various assessments (e.g., Mizuta et al, 2006;Kitajima et al, 2010;Kitoh et al, 2009). Furthermore, research groups have been developing high-resolution climate models able to reproduce the present-day local climate in areas of Japan characterized by complex mountainous terrain (e.g., Ishizaki and Takayabu, 2009).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantifying the Uncertainty Range of 30-Year Daily Precipitation Change due to Global Warming Using Regional Frequency Analysis

Ishihara¹

2010

Hydrological Research Letters

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Abstract:This study quantified the uncertainty range of future change in the 30-year return level of daily precipitation due to global warming for Kagoshima Prefecture (except for the Amami Islands), Japan, based on regional frequency analysis, following the results of Ishihara (2010b). The uncertainty due to resampling variability was quantified with a Monte Carlo simulation based on the regional quantile function, using projection results from MRI-RCM20. The 5%-95% uncertainty ranges of the regional 30-year quantile for the present and future climates were 1.941 ± 0.117 and 2.217 ± 0.160, respectively. Moreover, the 5%-95% range of the simulated future change ratio of the regional 30-year quantile was 1.142 ± 0.107. Based on the previous result that the annual maximum daily precipitation averaged over the region is projected to increase by 3.3%, the 5%-95% uncertainty range of the future change ratio of the regional 30-year return level of daily precipitation in the region was projected to be 1.180 ± 0.111. This result indicates that the regional 30-year return level of daily precipitation in the region is likely to increase by 6.9%-29.1% in about 100 years.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, the smallest scale of weather events able to be represented by climate models is generally several times the horizontal resolution of the model. Considering these limitations, regional assessments of future change might be more appropriate than "at-site" analyses (Ishihara, 2010b;Kitajima et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Uncertainty Range of 30-Year Daily Precipitation Change due to Global Warming Using Regional Frequency Analysis

Ishihara¹

2010

Hydrological Research Letters

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“…The introduction of smaller topography in models with 20-km resolution allows simulation of realistic precipitation patterns in Japan (Mizuta et al 2006). However, those models still represent regional precipitation averages better than point estimates (Kitajima et al 2010). Despite the model bias of not representing extreme rainfall well, Mizuta et al (2005) found that precipitation indices should increase, especially in western Japan and Hokkaido, and that the changes in other areas were insignificant.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping of Japanese areas susceptible to snow cover change

Chaffe

Takara

Yamashiki

et al. 2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Many of the Japanese regions subject to seasonal snow cover are characterized by low elevations and relatively high winter temperatures. A small change in winter temperatures could render many of these areas susceptible to snow cover change and consequently affect water resources management. This paper describes a climatological approach combined with an AGCM output to identify the regions and main river basins most sensitive to snow cover change in the case of climate change in Japan. It was found that a 1• C rise in temperature during the winter season could increase the snow-free area of Japan by 6%. The snow cover of Tohoku region and Mogami and Agano river basins was found to be the most sensitive to climate change. The AGCM output for a future scenario presents a reduction in total snowfall and an earlier peak in snowmelt for all regions.Key words snow cover; climate change; AGCM; AMeDAS; APHRO_JP; Japan Cartographie des régions du Japon sensibles aux changements de la couverture nivale Résumé La plupart des régions japonaises soumises à une couverture nivale saisonnière sont caractérisées par de faibles altitudes et des températures hivernales relativement élevées. Dans ces régions, un petit changement des températures hivernales peut modifier le régime de la couverture nivale et par conséquent avoir une incidence sur la gestion des ressources en eau. Cet article décrit une approche climatologique combinée avec une sortie de MCGA (Modèle de circulation générale atmosphérique) pour identifier les régions et les bassins les plus sensibles aux changements de la couverture nivale provoqués par le changement climatique au Japon. On a constaté qu'1• C de température en plus au cours de l'hiver pourrait augmenter la surface dépourvue de neige du Japon de 6%. Les couvertures nivales de la région de Tohoku et des bassins du Mogami et de l'Agano se sont révélées être les plus sensibles au changement climatique. La sortie MCGA d'un scénario futur présente une réduction du total des chutes de neige et un maximum plus précoce de la fonte des neiges pour toutes les régions.

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“…Kim et al (2010) evaluated hydrologic discharge on the controlled simulation output of MRI-GCM20 using observed river discharge data and introduced that MRI-GCM20 provides relevant discharge output when the basin scale is more than 5000 km 2 . Kitajima et al (2010) investigated the reproducibility of regional-mean probable precipitation in Japan estimated based on the results of MRI-GCM20 and MRI-RCM20. They showed that the reproducibility of the average and standard deviation of the annual maximum precipitation is correlated with that of 30-year return values.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of potential changes in cereals production under climate change scenarios

Tatsumi

Yamashiki

Silva

et al. 2011

Hydrological Processes

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Abstract:This survey proposed a new methodology -iGAEZ (improved GAEZ), developed based on the GAEZ (Global Agro-Ecological Zones) model, capable of simulating crop yields on a global scale for wheat, potato, cassava, soybean, rice, sweet potato, maize, green beans. iGAEZ determines the optimum criteria of crop parameter of growth cycles to ensure best realistic crop yield combinations under comprehensive consideration of climate and crop condition. Global-scale crop yields were calculated using iGAEZ model for the period of 1990-1999. Through comparing simulated yields and FAO statistics, iGAEZ has demonstrated a very good ability to reproduce realistic crop yields on a global scale. We also predicted the impact of global warming on crop yields from the 1990s to 2090s by projecting five GCM outputs for AR4 under SRES A1B scenarios. According to the result, temperature rise will make many cultivated areas (eastern part of USA, India, eastern China, Africa) less productive. On the other hand, the regions with cold weather under current climate condition (Canada, northern Europe, northeastern China) become suitable for crop productivity under future climate scenario.

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Reproducibility of Regional-Mean Probable Precipitation by High-Resolution Climate Models

Cited by 3 publications

References 8 publications

Quantifying the Uncertainty Range of 30-Year Daily Precipitation Change due to Global Warming Using Regional Frequency Analysis

Quantifying the Uncertainty Range of 30-Year Daily Precipitation Change due to Global Warming Using Regional Frequency Analysis

Mapping of Japanese areas susceptible to snow cover change

Estimation of potential changes in cereals production under climate change scenarios

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