Reproducing the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period Climate in the 2020s.

Abstract

The current expectation of climatologists is that levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases, such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), will correspond, in the 2020s, to an increase in mean annual global near-surface atmospheric temperature of less than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial Holocene norm (1750 baseline; atmospheric CO2 = 278 ppm). This paper will argue, contrarily, that it is not possible to reproduce the atmospheric chemistry of the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (3.3-3 Mya) of the Pliocene Epoch, 5.3-2.588 Mya, without also reproducing its climate, and that – consequently – we can expect to see global warming of 3°C this decade.

The Inevitable Collapse of Advanced Industrial Society.

“…These are not separate problems; rather they interact in two gigantic complex adaptive systems: the biosphere system and the human socio-economic system.' They note that the essential steps to limit CO 2 emissions to half their present levels by 2050 (assuming this would be sufficient, which is doubtful, see Blaber, 2023b [67]) would require fossil fuel companies to 'leave most of their proven reserves in the ground, thus destroying much of the industry's economic value'. Bendell (2018Bendell ( , 2020) argues for a near-term collapse of society triggered by environmental catastrophe, but imagines that we would need to 'grieve' this situation.…”