The dynamics of ungulate populations across variable ecosystems and management strategies demonstrate disparate trajectories such that some populations are overabundant, while other populations are subject to recovery efforts. Understanding how variation in vital rates such as pregnancy and survival integrate to shape the trajectories of populations is, therefore, helpful for informed management, particularly given that our understanding of the dynamics of harvested ungulate populations is often limited. Age-related variation in vital rates among elk (Cervus canadensis) suggest that suitable population matrix models require age-specific vital rates that can be logistically and analytically challenging to obtain. Our goals were to use a large, long-term data set on elk and hierarchical Bayesian models to estimate age-specific pregnancy and annual survival rates and their process variances, use stochastic population projection matrices to understand the effects of additional mortality from harvest on population dynamics, and identify the influence of different combinations of vital rates on population trajectories. We found that median age-specific pregnancy rates increased with age from yearlings (0.52, 90% credible interval [CrI] = 0.37, 0.65) to a plateau among prime ages (e.g., 9-year-old: 0.91, 90% CrI = 0.87, 0.94), followed by a decline for the oldest ages (e.g., 19-year-old: 0.10, 90% CrI = 0.03, 0.28). Annual survival rates plateaued among prime-aged animals (e.g., 9-year-old: 0.94, 90% CrI = 0.92, 0.96), and declined for the oldest-ages (e.g., 19-year-old: 0.21, 90% CrI = 0.04, 0.56). We found higher process variation in pregnancy