Required characteristics of statistical distribution models for life cycle cost estimation

Jiang, Renyan; Zhang, W. J.; Ji, Ping

doi:10.1016/s0925-5273(02)00318-3

Cited by 18 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…investment costs cannot be negative. Therefore, in practice it is discouraged to employ PDs that have values less than zero or to truncate the lower limit at zero for all PDs (Jiang et al, 2003). The second way is even less recommended because such truncation moves the mean of PD to the right making it more conservative estimate.…”

Section: Application Of Probability To Assess Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, in this fragmental information any quantitative data about probabilities and values of risk was provided. In case of PDs in most of papers such as prepared by (Acebes et al, 2014;Chou, 2011;Scherer et al, 2003;Jiang, 2003), it is analyzed the features of the so-called "traditional" PDs such as normal, triangular, lognormal, beta etc. to assess various uncertainties, but not their appropriateness to assess Risk.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cost overrun risk assessment in the public investment projects: an empirically-grounded research

Jasiukevicius¹,

Vasiliauskaitė

2015

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The article deals with the issue of how to accurately assess the Risk (risk of cost overrun) in PIPs (public investment projects). Problematic and, as a result, rare application of quantitative risk assessment tools in the public sector determines the relevance of systemization and facilitation of techniques, which would allow increasing accuracy of Risk assessment as well as efficiency and transparency of public finance management. The purpose of this article is to analyze the peculiarities of Risk in PIPs and to find the PDs (probability distributions) that best enable to assess the Risk in PIPs more specifically. Summarizing the scientific literature, it was revealed that, due to a complex of problems, risk assessment based on historical data gives place to the qualitative tools such as personal expertise, which is prevailing in practice. However, under the circumstances analyzed in the article, the application of historical data allows getting more accurate results, and the public sector, despite the lack of experience in comparison with the private one, has more advantages in this case. The performed case study enabled to present a methodology of how to systemize data for the assessment of Risk in PIPs. The peculiarities of Risk were analyzed in groups (PIP groups), their classification was based on PIP accounting plan of long-term assets in Lithuania. The findings of the article showed the difficulties of the public sector to ensure sufficient financing as well as the problems to manage Risk in PIPs. The case study disclosed the inability of the so called "traditional" PDs to accurately describe this tendency of success of the public sector to implement PIP within the estimated budget, while the Loglogistics and its parameters were tested as the most suitable PD to assess the Risk not in a general case, but also in different PIP groups.

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Section: Application Of Probability To Assess Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost overrun risk assessment in the public investment projects: an empirically-grounded research

Jasiukevicius¹,

Vasiliauskaitė

2015

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“…But uncertainty which is essentially inherent in a system exists in all situations that are unknown, unpredictable, change of technology and economic, or complex, so the evaluation accuracy of life cycle cost will be immensely influenced and it is necessary to make uncertainty analysis. Jiang et al (2003) showed that the important nature of LCC estimation was uncertainty and cost elements were usually represented by statistical distributions [6]. The probabilistic cost analysis approach using Monte Carlo simulation for iterative process provided comprehensive and alternatives were presented [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Jiang et al (2003) showed that the important nature of LCC estimation was uncertainty and cost elements were usually represented by statistical distributions [6]. The probabilistic cost analysis approach using Monte Carlo simulation for iterative process provided comprehensive and alternatives were presented [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Analysis of Life Cycle Cost for Power Transformer

Bian¹,

Sun²,

Wang³

et al. 2014

JPEE

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The selection of power transformer is very important to power sector. Most methods are utilized according to the initial cost and don't consider the synthetical evaluation of economy and technology. Based on previous research, this paper addresses a new practical probabilistic life cycle cost model. Then, in order to demonstrate the practicability of probabilistic life cycle cost for the power transformer, illustrative investment alternatives of actual power transformers are discussed. From the result of the numerical investigation, it may be positively stated that the optimum investment alternative for the power transformer based on the probabilistic life cycle cost model proposed in this study will lead to a more rational, economical and effective procedure compared with the conventional method only considering the initial cost.

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“…principais características que influem no desempenho global da estrutura são a espessura e o módulo de resiliência de cada camada, inclusive do subleito.A distribuição normal é largamente utilizada em diversos trabalhos Ji (2003). apresentaram um modelo para a caracterização de amostras através de distribuições probabilísticas.…”

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Dimensionamento e análise do ciclo de vida de pavimentos rodoviários: uma abordagem probabilística.

Santos¹,

Bernucci²

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Required characteristics of statistical distribution models for life cycle cost estimation

Cited by 18 publications

References 9 publications

Cost overrun risk assessment in the public investment projects: an empirically-grounded research

Cost overrun risk assessment in the public investment projects: an empirically-grounded research

Probabilistic Analysis of Life Cycle Cost for Power Transformer

Dimensionamento e análise do ciclo de vida de pavimentos rodoviários: uma abordagem probabilística.

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