Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: status and needs

Abstract

Wildland fire management has moved beyond a singular focus on suppression, calling for wildfire management for ecological benefit where no critical human assets are at risk. Processes causing direct effects and indirect, long-term ecosystem changes are complex and multidimensional. Robust risk-assessment tools are required that account for highly variable effects on multiple values-at-risk and balance competing objectives, to support decision making. Providing wildland fire managers with risk-analysis tools requires a broad scientific foundation in fire behaviour and effects prediction as well as high quality computer-based tools and associated databases. We outline a wildfire riskassessment approach, highlight recent developments in fire effects science and associated research needs, and recommend developing a comprehensive plan for integrated advances in wildfire occurrence, behaviour and effects research leading to improved decision support tools for wildland fire managers. We find that the current state of development in fire behaviour and effects science imposes severe limits on the development of risk-assessment technology. In turn, the development of technology has been largely disconnected from the research enterprise, resulting in a confusing array of ad hoc tools that only partially meet decision-support needs for fuel and fire management. We make the case for defining a common riskbased analytic framework for fire-effects assessment across the range of fire-management activities and developing a research function to support the framework.

Advances in understanding and managing wildland fire: communicating wildland fire research to land-management practitioners

“…Hyde et al (2013) have concluded that the current state of development in fire behaviour and effects science imposes severe limitations on the development of risk assessment analytical frameworks. The current state of risk assessment technology is a confusing array of ad hoc assessment tools that do not meet the decision support needs of fire managers.…”

“…Several authors make the point that research over the past decade has applied and extended existing knowledge in many useful ways, but that significant investment in fundamental science is needed to make substantive progress on many tough issues (e.g. Finney et al 2013;Goodrick et al 2013;Hyde et al 2013). New science should be refocussed on central constructs or theories to be most effective (e.g.…”

“…New science should be refocussed on central constructs or theories to be most effective (e.g. Finney et al 2013;Hyde et al 2013;Keane 2013). The need for model verification and validation was a common theme (e.g.…”

“…The need for model verification and validation was a common theme (e.g. Goodrick et al 2013;Hyde et al 2013;Miller and Ager 2013), and the Smoke and Model Intercomparison Project (SEMIP) was cited as an excellent example of this work. The need for improved decision support systems to integrate new knowledge for fire and fuel applications surfaced in several papers (Goodrick et al 2013;Hyde et al 2013;Miller and Ager 2013).…”

“…The need to expand and integrate the spatial and temporal scope of fire and fuels research and analysis is perhaps the theme with broadest applicability (e.g. Hyde et al 2013;McCaffrey et al 2013;Miller and Ager 2013;Robichaud and Ashmun 2013).…”