Research on Development Characteristics and Landslide Dam Hazard Prediction of Zhuangfang Landslide in the Upper Reaches of the Nu River

Abstract

The upper reaches of the Nu River have strong tectonic activities and broken rock mass structures, often causing landslide disasters. The Zhuangfang landslide has apparent signs of surface deformation, and there is a risk of further sliding and blocking of the river. Taking the Zhuangfang landslide as an example, this paper analyzes the development characteristics and stability through geological field surveys, a drone aerial survey, field drilling, and GEO5 geotechnical engineering software. Then through the indoor tests and RAMMS numerical simulation software, the parameters of the landslide are determined, and the risk of a landslide dam is analyzed. Our results demonstrated that the Zhuangfang landslide is a large-scale landslide with a volume of about 4.5 × 106 m3. The front edge of the landslide is seriously deformed and is in an under-stable state, with risks of sliding and river blockage. The numerical simulation results showed that the total movement time of the landslide was 130 s, and the landslide entered the Nu River at 55 s. However, the landslide does not completely block the river and cannot form a landslide dam. The study proposed a parameter inversion method to determine the landslide mass parameters based on RAMMS numerical simulation software. The related results of this study can provide a reference for the sustainable development of the ecological environment in the Nu River Basin.