Research on Evaluation of Financial Risks in Agricultural Product Supply Chains Based on An Improved DEMATEL Method

Abstract

In order to improve the rationality, accuracy, and timeliness of decisions on financial risks in agricultural product supply chains, it is necessary to evaluate and control these risks sensibly. In this paper, research is conducted on financial risk factors in agricultural product supply chains, and on this basis a financial risk evaluation index system for such supply chains is built in four identified dimensions – credit risk, market risk, pledge risk, and supply chain relation risk. Next, the weights of risk indexes are measured by means of combined weighting based on subjective F-AHP method and objective CRITIC method. The final risk weight coefficients are then derived with EDAS method. With the aid of an improved DEMATEL method, the agricultural product supply chain financial risk factors are analyzed, and comprehensive impact degrees of different risk factors in agricultural product supply chains are calculated. The calculation results show that financial risks in agricultural product supply chains are highly influenced by cooperation level, performance record, and financial standing and repayment history of borrowing organization. Based on the findings of this paper, appropriate financial risk management and control measures can be developed in light of the key risk factors identified in agricultural product supply chains, thereby providing a valuable reference for financial risk control in agricultural product supply chains.