Research on Model Calibration Method of Chiller Plants Based on Error Reverse Correction with Limited Data

Abstract

Model-based optimization is an important means by which to analyze the energy-saving potential of chiller plants. To obtain reliable energy-saving results, model calibration is essential, which strongly depends on operating data. However, sufficient data cannot always be satisfied in reality. To improve the prediction accuracy of the model with limited data, a model calibration method based on error reverse correction was investigated. A traditional optimization-based calibration method was first used for preliminary model calibration to obtain simulation data and simulation errors. Then, the sources of the simulation errors were analyzed to determine the distribution characteristics of the corresponding operating conditions of the model. Finally, the performance of the model was reversely corrected by adding a correction term to the original model. The proposed calibration method was tested on a chiller plant in Xiamen, China. The results showed that the proposed calibration method improved prediction accuracy by 2.61% (the coefficient of variation of the root mean square error (CV (RMSE)) was reduced from 3.96% to 1.35%) compared to the traditional method. The maximum mean bias error (MBE) for monthly chiller energy consumption was 2.66% with the proposed calibration method, while it was 10.42% with the traditional method. Overall, in scenarios with limited data, the proposed calibration method can effectively improve the accuracy of simulation results.