Research on Performance Analysis of Air Traffic Flow Management Combined Strategy Impacted by uncertainty

Abstract

Since the implementation performance of the composite air traffic flow management strategy is impacted by the departure time uncertainty and/or the estimated time over the enroute point, it is needed to quantitatively analyze the uncertainty impact on the composite strategy. Focused on the initial composite strategy which combines ground delay strategy and miles-in-trail restriction, the practical operation data of Sanya Control Area in the South China Sea is utilized to analyze uncertainty characterization of the departure time and the en-route flying time. Algorithm for dynamically adjusting the initial management strategy is designed and the assessment performance metrics for the composited strategy impacted under uncertainty are advanced and calculated. Then the performance is analyzed with the Monte-Carlo method.