Research on Performance Prediction of Highway Asphalt Pavement Based on Grey–Markov Model

Abstract

Reasonable and accurate forecasts can be used by the highway maintenance management department to determine the best maintenance timing and strategy, which can keep the highway performing well and maximize its social and economic benefits. A Grey–Markov combination model is established in this paper to predict highway pavement performance accurately based on the Grey GM (1, 1) model (a single-variable Grey prediction model with a first-order difference equation) and revised by the Markov model. The advantages of the short-term forecast Grey model and the probabilistic Markov model, which considers the fate of pavement performance prediction, are comprehensively applied to the combined forecasting model. The Grey GM (1, 1), Grey–Markov model and Liu-Yao model are adopted to predict the pavement condition index (PCI) based on the actual PCI values measured in Shanxi, Chongqing, and Shaoguan. The average relative errors of the above three models’ predicted values in Shanxi are 0.73%, 1.18%, and 0.67%, respectively, from 2012 to 2014. Thus, the prediction errors of the three models are relatively close. The average relative errors of the prediction values predicted by the three models are 3.89%, 0.67%, and 0.50%, respectively, from 2015 to 2019. The latter two errors are more minor than the Grey GM (1, 1) model. Two other regions have similar conclusions. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the combination Grey–Markov prediction model established in this paper is feasible to predict asphalt pavement performance in China.

An intuitionistic fuzzy grey-Markov method with application to demand forecasting for emergency supplies during major epidemics

“…It utilizes the state transition matrix to create predictions, with a particular advantage in accurately predicting outcomes for highly volatile processes. The integration of the Markov method with grey method has been shown to reduce mistakes to some extent (Fatima and Jerome, 2021; Zhu et al , 2022; Liu et al , 2019).…”

Research on Effect of Equivalent Diameter of Voids on Sound Absorption Performance of Porous Asphalt Concrete Based on Grey Entropy Method

“…PAC pavement is widely used because of its good noise reduction performance. The noise reduction mechanism is that sound waves enter the interior of the PAC through surface voids, and due to heat conduction effects and viscosity, sound energy will be converted into heat energy and dissipated [2,3]. The sound absorption performance of PAC is inseparable from the sizes of voids [4,5,6].…”