Research on Popularization Effect of „Near-Zero Emissions” of Thermal Power Based on Multi-Scenario Simulation

Abstract

In China's energy consumption, about 50% of coal is used for power generation conversion, and the resulting environmental impact and air pollution problems cannot be ignored. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to improve the level of clean coal utilization. Based on the background that the country currently grants a subsidy of RMB 0.01/kWh for the "near-zero emission" of thermal power, this paper applies system dynamics (SD) modeling to simulate the impact of different policy scenarios on the promotion and effects of "near-zero emission" of thermal power. From the perspective of promotion speed and emission reduction contribution, simulation analysis found that thermal power "near-zero emission" technology can bring more significant environmental benefits and has promotion value. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) After 2020, if the current subsidy of RMB 0.01/kWh continues to be implemented, the "near-zero emission" retrofit of stock units can be fully completed in early 2026. (2) Compared with no policy subsidies, the cumulative emission reduction of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and soot will be approximately 15.13 million tons, 15.13 million tons and 2.37 million tons from the beginning of 2016 to the beginning of 2026, respectively.