Research on Risk Evaluation of Hydropower Engineering EPC Project Based on Improved Fuzzy Evidence Reasoning Model

Abstract

As clean renewable energy with strong advantages, hydropower plays an extremely important role in promoting green development and energy allocation patterns. Hydropower project construction is characterized by long duration, large scale, high cost, many participants, and complex construction conditions, and is closely related to the economy, society, and ecological environment, and its construction management mode and construction risk management have become the focus of extensive attention from all walks of life. In this paper, the risk evaluation index system of hydropower engineering EPC project is constructed, and the linear weighted combination method is introduced to determine the comprehensive weights based on the calculation of weights by sequential relationship method and entropy weight method, and the improved fuzzy normal distribution is introduced as the subordinate function distribution of fuzzy evaluation level based on DS evidence theory and fuzzy theory. The risk evaluation model of a hydropower engineering EPC project is also established. Meanwhile, the model was analyzed with hydropower project examples to verify the accuracy and practicality of the model, which can guide hydropower project stakeholders to manage hydropower project risks comprehensively, collaboratively, and efficiently, and provide decision support for hydropower project construction risk management.

Evolutionary Game-Based Research on Risk Sharing in Major Projects under the EPC+PPP Mode Considering Secondary Risks

“…They effectively identified pivotal risk pathways. Li et al [9] established a risk assessment index system for hydropower engineering EPC projects and utilized an improved fuzzy evidence reasoning model to evaluate risks. Song and Hao [10] used the ISM model to analyze the correlation between political risk, economic risk, contract risk, and other risks of EPC projects and put forward corresponding risk coping strategies.…”