Research on social and economic factors influencing regional mortality patterns in China

Abstract

Regional population mortality correlates with regional socioeconomic development. This study aimed to identify the key socioeconomic factors influencing mortality patterns in Chinese provinces. Using data from the Seventh Population Census, we analyzed mortality patterns by gender and urban‒rural division in 31 provinces. Using a functional regression model, we assessed the influence of fourteen indicators on mortality patterns. Main findings: (1) China shows notable gender and urban‒rural mortality variations across age groups. Males generally have higher mortality than females, and rural areas experience elevated mortality rates compared to urban areas. Mortality in individuals younger than 40 years is influenced mainly by urban‒rural factors, with gender becoming more noticeable in the 40–84 age group. (2) The substantial marginal impact of socioeconomic factors on mortality patterns generally becomes evident after the age of 45, with less pronounced differences in their impact on early-life mortality patterns. (3) Various factors have age-specific impacts on mortality. Education has a negative effect on mortality in individuals aged 0–29, extending to those aged 30–59 and diminishing in older age groups. Urbanization positively influences the probability of death in individuals aged 45–54 years, while the impact of traffic accidents increases with age. Among elderly people, the effect of socioeconomic variables is smaller, highlighting the intricate and heterogeneous nature of these influences and acknowledging certain limitations.