Research on the Economic Benefit Evaluation of Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Technical Renovation Projects Based on the Improved Factor Analysis and Incremental Method in China

Abstract

With the increasingly prominent problems of resources and environment, thermal power enterprises in China are facing more severe challenges. To improve energy efficiency, a great number of thermal power enterprises implement the technical renovation of equipment. However, current methods cannot meet the needs of scientific and effective evaluations. In this context, the internal rate of return (IRR) is used as the main index to evaluate the economic benefits of the technical renovation of combined heat and power (CHP) plants. In order to improve the accuracy of the economic benefit evaluation results, the incremental cash flow is calculated through the incremental method, which is based on the existence and non-existence method, and the improved factor analysis method is utilized to eliminate the influence of price factors from markets that have no direct and definite relationship with the technical renovation. Then, the evaluation method is validated by taking a CHP technical renovation project in B city of China as an example. By comparing with other methods, the results show that the IRRs calculated by different methods are quite different, and the difference between the maximum and the minimum can reach 69.95%. The result of the method proposed in this paper is more reasonable and reliable and can effectively evaluate the economic benefits of CHP technical renovation projects.

[Retracted] BP Neural Network Based on Simulated Annealing Algorithm Optimization for Financial Crisis Dynamic Early Warning Model

“…Wang et al selected typical indicators of corporate finance and corporate governance, extracted key factors through index difference analysis, factor analysis, and other steps, and carried out SVM analysis of financial early warning of individual corporate financial indicators and SVM analysis of comprehensive financial early warning with corporate governance variables [ 12 ]. Yang et al, in the empirical study took cash flow as the key variable, comprehensively considered macroeconomic, monetary policy, and other external factors, established the CFAR model of risk exposure, separated the enterprise expected cash flow and risk cash flow, and used them as the input variable to construct the logistic financial early warning mechanism; the final prediction accuracy reached more than 80% and achieved good model effect [ 13 ]. Xu et al started from the incentive, constraint, and balance mechanism contained in the company's internal governance, selected indicators from the three levels of shareholders, board of directors, and managers, and incorporated them into the financial early warning index system together with the core financial indicators to establish a logistic early warning model.…”

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“…This method is easily affected by the difference in subjective judgment of evaluation experts in practical application, and it is difficult to overcome the randomness, subjective uncertainty, and cognitive fuzziness of evaluation experts. Reference [19] has effectively realized the multiobjective comprehensive evaluation of the education system by using the grade standard combined with qualitative and quantitative and the evaluation method of fuzzy judgment; however, this method is easily affected by the difference of subjective judgment of evaluation experts. Customer satisfaction was first introduced in reference [20], with the belief that it is an important outcome of marketing activities.…”

An Operation Benefit Analysis and Decision Model of Thermal Power Enterprises in China against the Background of Large-Scale New Energy Consumption

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