Research on the Food Security Condition and Food Supply Capacity of Egypt

Abstract

Food security is chronically guaranteed in Egypt because of the food subsidy policy of the country. However, the increasing Egyptian population is straining the food supply. To study changes in Egyptian food security and future food supply capacity, we analysed the historical grain production, yield per unit, grain-cultivated area, and per capita grain possession of Egypt. The GM (1,1) model of the grey system was used to predict the future population. Thereafter, the result was combined with scenario analysis to forecast the grain possession and population carrying capacity of Egypt under different scenarios. Results show that the increasing population and limitations in cultivated land will strain Egyptian food security. Only in high cultivated areas and high grain yield scenarios before 2020, or in high cultivated areas and mid grain yield scenarios before 2015, can food supply be basically satisfied (assurance rate ≥ 80%) under a standard of 400 kg per capita. Population carrying capacity in 2030 is between 51.45 and 89.35 million. Thus, we propose the use of advanced technologies in agriculture and the adjustment of plant structure and cropping systems to improve land utilization efficiency. Furthermore, urbanization and other uses of cultivated land should be strictly controlled to ensure the planting of grains.

The impact of population growth on food security in Egypt

“…In the same context, Thomson's analysis examines the mutual dependence of food security and food aid in Egypt, underscoring the resource implications and equity impact of a food system reliant on external resources (Thomson, 1983). Likewise, Deng et al anticipate that Egypt's growing population and restricted cultivated land will impede food security, suggesting the implementation of advanced technologies and strict management of land use to ensure grain production (Deng et al, 2014) the multi-market model, which was specially built to simulate the performance of the Egyptian agricultural sector.…”

Evaluation of Food Security Based on Remote Sensing Data—Taking Egypt as an Example

“…In recent years, global climate change, soil desertification, salinization, urbanization, and other issues have negatively influenced grain production in Egypt. Meanwhile, a high population growth rate and fluctuating global food prices have further increased the severity of its food security problems [6,7].…”

“…To date, there have been some studies on food security in Egypt, a country with scarce fertile arable land and a large growing population [6]. Some studies have recently analyzed Egypt's food security problem from a macroscopic view aiming to predict the future food security risk and provide recommendations for the government [20][21][22], which include analyzing the damage to food security caused by the loss of cultivated land [23], climate change related to temperature and water resources [24][25][26], and grain production [18].…”