Research on the forecast of new energy vehicle ownership and charging load in China

Abstract

With the rapid expansion of the scale of new energy vehicles, the demand for power resources of new energy vehicles will increase geometrically, and the power load they generate may have a greater impact on the power system. In the past, most of the research was limited to the load prediction at the project or city level, but this study combines the prediction of China's new energy vehicle ownership and charging load from a national perspective and predicts the medium-and long-term consumption of China's new energy vehicle ownership and the power load under the condition of disorderly charging. The results of the study show that in 2022, the highest electricity load of new energy vehicle charging in China will be about 9.6 million kW, accounting for about 0.76% of the total electricity load in the country. It is estimated that by 2025, the number of new energy vehicles in China will reach 35.46 million, and the maximum power load of China's new energy vehicle charging will reach 26.0 million kW in the case of disorderly charging; it is expected that by 2030, the number of new energy vehicles in China will reach 88.44 million units, and the maximum power load brought by this will be further increased to 64.9 million kW. This study scientifically predicts the electricity load of new energy vehicles in the medium and long term and puts forward suggestions for promoting policies for vehicle-network integration in three stages.