Research on the Impact of Energy Price on Carbon Emission Intensity of China—An Empirical Study Based on LMDI Decomposition and Econometric Models

Abstract

Taking the data of various sectors and three industries from 1980 to 2019 as the research object, the LMDI-I (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) multiplicative decomposition model, which is based on the principle of decomposing the change in energy consumption into the contribution of each factor, was used to decompose the carbon emission intensity into technological progress effect and economic structure changing effect. Meanwhile, quantitative econometric models of energy price, economic growth, energy consumption structure, and the two effects were also established. The empirical results showed that energy price, economic growth, and energy consumption structure significantly influenced the reduction in carbon emission intensity. A positive U-shaped relationship between energy prices and carbon emission intensity was overserved, and the rise of energy prices mainly drive the decline of carbon emission intensity through the effect of technological progress. However, the effect of economic structure driven by the rise of energy prices was limited; thus, further optimization of economic structure is needed. Additionally, the proportion of coal consumption was positively correlated with the technological progress effect and economic structure change effect, while the decrease in coal consumption proportion promoted the decline of carbon emission intensity. Finally, three recommendations based on the analysis were proposed.