Research on the Indirect Impact of Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Loan Default – Based on Two Channels of Banks and Enterprises

Abstract

Based on the financial data of 15 listed banks from 2011 to 2020, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the panel model, examines the indirect impact mechanism between the uncertainty index of monetary policy and the non-performing loan ratio of banks, and verifies the intermediary effect of bank risk-taking and enterprise loan cost between the uncertainty of monetary policy and the non-performing loan ratio of banks, In addition, it also tests the heterogeneity of the equity nature of listed banks in order to make a comprehensive analysis of the indirect impact channels of monetary policy uncertainty on loan default. The results show that: (1) there are some intermediary effects between loan cost and bank risk-taking on loan default when the uncertainty of monetary policy increases. ( 2)The impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the non-performing loan ratio of state-owned banks and joint-stock banks is significantly positive, and the impact coefficient on the nonperforming loan ratio of state-owned banks is greater than that of joint-stock banks.