Research on Wind Power by a Combination Prediction Method Based on Meteorological Data

Abstract

Abstract. The prediction of output wind power is considered as an effective way to increase the wind power capacity and improve the safety and economy of power system. It is one of the hot research topics on wind power. The wind farm output power is related to many factors such as wind speed, temperature, etc., which is difficult to be described by some mathematical expression. In this paper, Back Propagation (BP) neural network algorithm is respectively combined with genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) to establish the combination prediction model of the short-term wind farm output power based on meteorological data The Meteorological data is used to determine the input variables of the BP neural network. Meanwhile, the GA and the PSO is respectively used to adjust the value of BP's connection weight and threshold dynamically. Then the trained GA-BP and PSO-BP neural network are used to predict the wind power by combination method. The experiment results show that our method has better prediction capability compared with that using BP neural network, GA-BP neural network and PSO-BP neural network alone.